Nuggets vs Suns Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 31

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 31, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Suns (41-35) are -8.5 favorites vs. the Nuggets (51-25)
  • Total (Over/Under): 227.5 points
  • Friday, March 31, 2023 at 10:30pm EDT
  • Watch the game on BSAZ & ALT

The Denver Nuggets visit Footprint Center to take on the Phoenix Suns on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Suns are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-105).

The Nuggets vs Suns Over/Under is 227.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 40-35 against the spread, while the Suns are 39-35 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Suns Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets+10.5 -115O 227.5 -110+333
Phoenix Suns -10.5 -105U 227.5 -110-450

Suns vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Suns will win Friday‘s game with 70.8% confidence.

Suns vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Suns will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.7% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Nuggets and Suns, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 51 of their last 72 games (+27.22 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games (+10.64 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 away games (+9.85 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 40 of their last 69 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 45 of their last 73 games (+8.35 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 49 of their last 77 games (+18.30 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 35 games (+15.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 42 games (+14.58 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 44 of their last 72 games (+13.00 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have covered the 3Q Spread in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+11.79 Units / 26% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 40-35 (+1.5 Units / 1.8% ROI).

  • 51-25 against the Moneyline (+5.5 Units / 2.58% ROI)
  • 36-39 against the Over for game total points (-6.9 Units / -8.25% ROI)
  • 39-36 against the Under for game total points (-0.6 Units / -0.72% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Suns have gone 39-35 (+0.5 Units / 0.6% ROI).

  • 41-35 against the Moneyline (-2.25 Units / -1.4% ROI)
  • 38-36 against the Over for game total points (-1.6 Units / -1.91% ROI)
  • 36-38 against the Under for game total points (-5.8 Units / -6.94% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 30 of their last 81 games (-25.75 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 81 games (-23.14 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 72 games (-23.14 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 45 of their last 95 games (-23.12 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 81 games (-17.58 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 72 games (-36.48 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 86 games (-26.11 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 40 away games (-19.55 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 36 of their last 86 games (-19.43 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 28 of their last 69 games (-16.25 Units / -21% ROI)

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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Phoenix Suns

The Nuggets are 45-16 (.738) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .541

The Nuggets are 29-9 (.763) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

The Nuggets are 16-5 (.762) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .531

The Nuggets are 13-9 (.591) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .468

Phoenix Suns: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Phoenix Suns are 7-17 (.292) when losing the rebounding margin this season — ninth-worst among NBA teams. The Milwaukee Bucks have averaged 57.2 rebounds per game (3,892 rebounds/68 games) this season — highest among NBA teams.

The Suns are 39-9 (.812) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

The Suns are 85-32 (.726) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

The Suns are 33-10 (.767) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

Injury Report: Suns vs. NuggetsFriday‘s Game, Mar. 31

  • Phoenix Suns – No Injuries Reported
  • Nikola Jokic (Nuggets): Jokic is out for Thursday’s (Mar.30) game against New Orleans.
  • Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): Gillespie has not played this season and no timetable has been announced for his return.
  • Jack White (Nuggets): The Nuggets placed White in the league’s health and safety protocols.

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (5,068/9,911) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,413/6,651) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 52% (1,623/3,125) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an eFG% of 58% in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

Phoenix Suns Offensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (3,024 assists/ 1,456 TOs) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.9 (1,966 assists/ 1,014 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.0 (2,872 assists/ 1,468 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (6,031 assists/ 2,912 TOs) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (928 blocks/222 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (308 blocks/77 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have 513 steals this season — 10th most among NBA teams

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (605 blocks/150 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Phoenix Suns Defensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have averaged 8.0 steals per game (1,201 steals/150 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Suns have averaged 7.7 steals per game (1,718 steals/222 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Suns have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (318 blocks/76 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Suns have averaged 36.3 defensive rebounds per game (5,452 rebounds/150 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.