Nuggets vs Thunder Player Prop Bets Tonight – NBA, Mar. 9

• The – are favorites vs. the –
• Total (Over/Under): Total points
• Watch the game on PEAC | ALT | KTVD | FDOK

The Denver Nuggets visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm in Oklahoma City, OK.

The – are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Nuggets vs Thunder Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 35-29 against the spread, while the Thunder are 31-34 against the spread.

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Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Monday‘s game with 71.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Thunder.

Thunder vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 65.4% confidence.

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Nuggets Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 away games (+22.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 50 away games (+16.43 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 33 of their last 50 away games (+13.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 30 away games (+12.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 19 of their last 25 away games (+12.10 Units / 42% ROI)

Thunder Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.60 Units / 50% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+7.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)

Denver Nuggets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 35-29 (+3.1 Units / 4.4% ROI).

• 39-25 against the Moneyline (+1.55 Units / 0.95% ROI)
• 40-24 against the Over for game total points (+13.63 Units / 19.37% ROI)
• 24-40 against the Under for game total points (-20 Units / -28.38% ROI)

Oklahoma City Thunder Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 31-34 (-6.4 Units / -8.95% ROI).

• 50-15 against the Moneyline (-8.7 Units / -2.2% ROI)
• 34-31 against the Over for game total points (-0.1 Units / -0.14% ROI)
• 31-34 against the Under for game total points (-6.4 Units / -8.95% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Thunder:

• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 40 games (-27.40 Units / -31% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games at home (-26.35 Units / -33% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 45 games (-19.95 Units / -21% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 17 of their last 45 games at home (-15.35 Units / -30% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games at home (-14.90 Units / -26% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Nuggets:

• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 50 away games (-21.40 Units / -39% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 30 away games (-17.15 Units / -50% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 25 away games (-15.80 Units / -55% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 20 of their last 50 games (-15.00 Units / -20% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 3Q Spread in 15 of their last 40 games (-14.10 Units / -30% ROI)

Jump to:

• Keys to Winning for the Denver Nuggets
• Keys to Winning for the Oklahoma City Thunder
• Player Injuries for Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Denver Nuggets Offensive stats
• Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive stats
• Denver Nuggets Defensive stats
• Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive stats

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Nuggets are 33-7 (.825) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .618

The Nuggets are winless (0-6) when scoring fewer than 100 points since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .087

The Nuggets were 24-10 (.706) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

The Nuggets were 13-1 (.929) when forcing 10 or more steals in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .572

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Thunder are 93-14 (.869) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .599

The Thunder are 76-8 (.905) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .639

The Thunder are 41-7 (.854) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

The Thunder were 59-12 (.831) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .505

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 1.42 points per shot (4,169 points/2,935 shots) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

The Nuggets averaged 11.1 fast break points per game (913 points/82 games) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Nuggets had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (302 assists/ 122 TOs) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Nuggets have averaged 1.39 points per shot (7,691 points/5,547 shots) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.29

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder shot 41% from three (558/1,378) in the second half in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder have averaged 12.7 turnovers per game (826 turnovers/65 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.6

The Thunder averaged 11.7 turnovers per game (961 turnovers/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

The Thunder have averaged 12.3 turnovers per game (2,826 turnovers/229 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 6.9 steals per game (439 steals/64 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4

The Nuggets have averaged 36.4 defensive rebounds per game (8,300 rebounds/228 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (255 blocks/64 games) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Nuggets have forced 12.1 turnovers per game (775 turnovers/64 games) this season — lowest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.6

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 9.8 steals per game (1,140 steals/116 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Thunder have averaged 9.5 steals per game (2,176 steals/229 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Thunder have averaged 10.9 steals per game (817 steals/75 games) at home since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.2

The Thunder have allowed opponents to shoot 44% (5,607/12,868) since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 47%

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