Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 27

• The – are favorites vs. the –
• Total (Over/Under): Total points
• Watch the game on ESPN | ALT | FDOK

The Denver Nuggets visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30 pm in Oklahoma City, OK.

The – are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Nuggets vs Thunder Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 33-26 against the spread, while the Thunder are 31-29 against the spread.

Bet now on Thunder vs Nuggets and all NBA games with BetMGM

Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Friday‘s game with 60.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Thunder.

Thunder vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 55.8% confidence.

Bet now on Thunder vs Nuggets and all NBA games with BetMGM

Nuggets Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 away games (+22.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 45 away games (+15.63 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 33 of their last 50 away games (+13.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 away games (+12.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 18 of their last 23 away games (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)

Thunder Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+9.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+8.75 Units / 59% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+8.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.75 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+7.40 Units / 14% ROI)

Denver Nuggets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 33-26 (+4.4 Units / 6.77% ROI).

• 37-22 against the Moneyline (+3.1 Units / 2.04% ROI)
• 37-22 against the Over for game total points (+12.83 Units / 19.78% ROI)
• 22-37 against the Under for game total points (-18.7 Units / -28.79% ROI)

Oklahoma City Thunder Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 31-29 (-0.9 Units / -1.36% ROI).

• 45-15 against the Moneyline (-13.7 Units / -3.69% ROI)
• 33-27 against the Over for game total points (+3.3 Units / 5% ROI)
• 27-33 against the Under for game total points (-9.3 Units / -14.09% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Thunder:

• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 35 games (-36.05 Units / -20% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 35 games (-25.40 Units / -33% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games at home (-25.20 Units / -35% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 40 games (-19.30 Units / -23% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 40 games at home (-16.00 Units / -35% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Nuggets:

• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 45 away games (-20.10 Units / -41% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Game Total Under in 19 of their last 50 games (-16.43 Units / -29% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 23 away games (-15.65 Units / -59% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 50 games (-14.20 Units / -25% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 21 of their last 50 games (-12.10 Units / -21% ROI)

Jump to:

• Keys to Winning for the Denver Nuggets
• Keys to Winning for the Oklahoma City Thunder
• Player Injuries for Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Denver Nuggets Offensive stats
• Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive stats
• Denver Nuggets Defensive stats
• Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive stats

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Nuggets are 33-7 (.825) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .617

The Nuggets are winless (0-9) when shooting 40% or worse from the field since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .100

The Nuggets are 4-1 (.800) when forcing 10 or more steals this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .601

The Nuggets are 8-4 (.667) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .408

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Thunder are 81-14 (.853) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .559

The Thunder are 15-1 (.938) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .559

The Thunder are 101-14 (.878) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .573

The Thunder are 61-8 (.884) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .555

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 40% from three (392/987) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets are shooting 39% from three (812/2,065) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets averaged 58.5 points in the paint per game (4,796 points/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0

The Nuggets averaged 11.1 fast break points per game (913 points/82 games) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder shot 41% from three (558/1,378) in the second half in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder averaged 11.7 turnovers per game (961 turnovers/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

The Thunder averaged 17.2 points per game (844 points/49 games) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 20.3

The Thunder shot 39% from three (120/305) in close and late situations in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 7.0 steals per game (414 steals/59 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.5

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (241 blocks/59 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Nuggets have averaged 36.3 defensive rebounds per game (2,143 rebounds/59 games) this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.0

The Nuggets averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,946 rebounds/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 10.9 steals per game (796 steals/73 games) at home since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.2

The Thunder have averaged 9.8 steals per game (1,119 steals/114 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Thunder allowed opponents to shoot 43% (1,514/3,496) on the road last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 47%

The Thunder allowed opponents to shoot 43% (1,505/3,504) in the second half last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 47%

Bet now on Thunder vs Nuggets and all NBA games with BetMGM

Bet on NBA Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated NBA betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.