Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 7

  • The are favorites vs. the
  • Total (Over/Under): Total points
  • Watch the game on TNT | truTV | Max

The Denver Nuggets visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30pm EDT in Oklahoma City, OK, OK.

The are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Nuggets vs Thunder Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 42-46 against the spread, while the Thunder are 55-29 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets O
Oklahoma City Thunder U

Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Wednesday‘s game with 80.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Thunder.

Thunder vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 55 of their last 88 games (+17.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 88 games (+14.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 away games (+14.50 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 away games (+11.45 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 51 of their last 88 games (+10.50 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 56 of their last 89 games (+24.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 73 games (+20.55 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 69 games (+14.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1H Moneyline in 23 of their last 27 games (+13.70 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 60 games (+12.80 Units / 19% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 42-46 (-8.6 Units / -8.69% ROI).

  • 55-35 against the Moneyline (+6.2 Units / 2.42% ROI)
  • 53-37 against the Over for game total points (+12.3 Units / 12.42% ROI)
  • 37-53 against the Under for game total points (-21.3 Units / -21.52% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 55-29 (+23.1 Units / 23.86% ROI).

  • 72-16 against the Moneyline (+18.65 Units / 3.77% ROI)
  • 48-39 against the Over for game total points (+5.1 Units / 5.27% ROI)
  • 39-48 against the Under for game total points (-13.8 Units / -14.26% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 69 games (-24.90 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 84 games (-22.15 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 34 of their last 81 games (-19.28 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 60 games (-18.70 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 32 of their last 69 games (-18.10 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 88 games (-29.75 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 2Q Spread in 34 of their last 85 games (-23.87 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 88 games (-23.30 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 1H Spread in 38 of their last 92 games (-23.10 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 35 of their last 88 games (-22.88 Units / -23% ROI)

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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Nuggets are 23-5 (.821) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .615

The Nuggets are winless (0-12) when scoring fewer than 100 points since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .090

The Nuggets are 31-8 (.795) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .557

The Nuggets are 47-6 (.887) when their eFG is 60% or better since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .836

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Thunder are 19-5 (.792) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .436

The Thunder are 95-27 (.779) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .570

The Thunder are 34-6 (.850) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .557

The Thunder are 64-9 (.877) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .596

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 11.1 fast break points per game (913 points/82 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Nuggets have averaged 20.2 fast break points per game (1,653 points/82 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.5

The Nuggets have averaged 59.4 points in the paint per game (2,434 points/41 games) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.7

The Nuggets have averaged 5.5 assists per game (302 assists/55 games) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.2

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder shot 41% from three (558/1,378) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder had a TS% of 55% in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Thunder have averaged 5.6 turnovers per game (463 turnovers/82 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1

The Thunder have averaged 12.2 turnovers per game (2,000 turnovers/164 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.0

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 7.6 steals per game (1,241 steals/164 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.8

The Nuggets have averaged 5.2 blocks per game (859 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Nuggets blocked 457 shots last season — 10th most among NBA teams

The Nuggets averaged 7.1 steals per game (585 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 9.4 steals per game (1,541 steals/164 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.8

The Thunder have allowed opponents to shoot 44% (3,109/7,130) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 47%

The Thunder have allowed opponents to shoot 43% (1,514/3,496) on the road this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 47%

The Thunder have allowed a TS% of 49% this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 51%


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