Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Nov. 23

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 23, 2022, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets (10-6) are -2.5 favorites vs. the Thunder (7-10)
  • Total (Over/Under): 229.5 points
  • Wednesday, November 23, 2022 at 8:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSOK & ALT2

The Denver Nuggets visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Oklahoma City.

The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Nuggets vs Thunder Over/Under is 228.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 7-10 against the spread, while the Thunder are 10-7 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets+1.5 -115O 228.5 -115-105
Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5 -105U 228.5 -115-115

Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Wednesday‘s game with 58.1% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 52.3% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Nuggets and Thunder, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 62 games (+15.41 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 38 away games (+14.60 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 87 games (+14.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 30 of their last 47 away games (+12.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 50 of their last 85 games (+12.25 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 2H Moneyline in 23 of their last 43 games (+19.60 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 60 games (+17.48 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 43 games (+15.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 51 games (+15.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 29 of their last 43 games (+13.75 Units / 29% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 7-10 (-4 Units / -21.39% ROI).

  • 10-7 against the Moneyline (-1.7 Units / -4.13% ROI)
  • 8-9 against the Over for game total points (-1.9 Units / -10.16% ROI)
  • 9-8 against the Under for game total points (+0.2 Units / 1.07% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 10-7 (+2.35 Units / 12.6% ROI).

  • 7-10 against the Moneyline (+3.65 Units / 20.17% ROI)
  • 12-5 against the Over for game total points (+6.5 Units / 34.76% ROI)
  • 5-12 against the Under for game total points (-8.2 Units / -43.85% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 67 games (-30.65 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 20 of their last 60 games (-25.57 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 53 games (-20.50 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 79 games (-19.30 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 62 games (-17.90 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 34 of their last 87 games (-41.89 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 34 of their last 85 games (-28.71 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 25 of their last 68 games (-24.75 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 87 games (-23.20 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 35 of their last 87 games (-21.87 Units / -23% ROI)

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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Nuggets are 51-19 (.729) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568

The Nuggets are 33-11 (.750) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Nuggets are 28-15 (.651) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Nuggets are 17-6 (.739) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 11-47 (.190) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — seventh-worst among NBA teams. The Boston Celtics have averaged 45.1 rebounds per game (4,280 rebounds/95 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — seventh-highest among NBA teams.

The Thunder are winless (0-31) when allowing an eFG of 60% or better since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .141

The Thunder are 17-34 (.333) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .544

The Thunder are 6-15 (.286) when allowing fewer than 8 offense rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .480

Injury Report: Thunder vs. NuggetsWednesday‘s Game, Nov. 23

  • Chet Holmgren (Thunder): Holmgren will miss the 2022-23 season with Lisfranc injury to his right foot, according to Adrian Wojnarowsk of ESPN.
  • Mike Muscala (Thunder): Muscala will be re-evaluated in two weeks according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.
  • Aleksej Pokusevski (Thunder): Pokusevski is out for Wednesday’s (Nov. 23) game against Denver.
  • Ish Smith (Nuggets): Smith did not play in Tuesday’s (Nov. 22) game against Detroit.
  • Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): The Nuggets announced that Gillespie is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery to repair a lower left leg fracture.
  • Jeff Green (Nuggets): Green did not play in Tuesday’s (Nov. 22) game against Detroit.
  • Peyton Watson (Nuggets): Watson is out for Tuesday’s (Nov. 22) game against Detroit.

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,136/4,216) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,791/7,476) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 44% from three (61/138) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets are shooting 42% from three (171/404) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder are shooting 33% from three (2,000/6,055) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder have averaged 1.19 points per shot (8,637 points/7,246 shots) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

The Thunder have an eFG% of 50% since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

The Thunder have averaged 1.17 points per shot (8,646 points/7,398 shots) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.25

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (158 blocks/45 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (348 blocks/86 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (196 blocks/50 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (329 blocks/81 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 9.2 steals per game (119 steals/13 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Thunder have averaged 7.8 steals per game (742 steals/95 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Thunder have blocked 81 shots this season — 4th most among NBA teams

The Thunder have averaged 6.2 blocks per game (81 blocks/13 games) this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.