Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 23

• The Nuggets are -2.5 favorites vs. the Timberwolves
• Total (Over/Under): 234.5 points
• Watch the game on Amazon

The Denver Nuggets visit Target Center to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30 pm in Minneapolis, MN.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Nuggets vs Timberwolves Over/Under is 234.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 45-39 against the spread, while the Timberwolves are 38-46 against the spread.

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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Timberwolves will win Thursday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Timberwolves.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 60.5% confidence.

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Nuggets Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 45 away games (+17.73 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 40 away games (+14.15 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games (+14.00 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 22 of their last 30 away games (+12.80 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 15 away games (+10.65 Units / 61% ROI)

Timberwolves Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games at home (+14.45 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+11.90 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+11.64 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 16 of their last 20 games at home (+11.45 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+9.50 Units / 34% ROI)

Denver Nuggets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 45-39 (+2.1 Units / 2.27% ROI).

• 55-29 against the Moneyline (+7.6 Units / 2.55% ROI)
• 53-31 against the Over for game total points (+18.93 Units / 20.49% ROI)
• 31-53 against the Under for game total points (-27.3 Units / -29.53% ROI)

Minnesota Timberwolves Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Timberwolves have gone 38-46 (-12.65 Units / -13.68% ROI).

• 50-34 against the Moneyline (-11.55 Units / -4.84% ROI)
• 39-45 against the Over for game total points (-10.5 Units / -11.36% ROI)
• 45-39 against the Under for game total points (+2.1 Units / 2.27% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Timberwolves:

• The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 35 games at home (-20.90 Units / -31% ROI)
• The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 40 games at home (-20.15 Units / -44% ROI)
• The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 45 games (-18.25 Units / -27% ROI)
• The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 35 games at home (-16.65 Units / -41% ROI)
• The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 24 games at home (-16.15 Units / -36% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Nuggets:

• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 22 of their last 50 games (-29.15 Units / -24% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 45 away games (-22.20 Units / -45% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 40 away games (-20.00 Units / -44% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 30 away games (-17.15 Units / -50% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 30 away games (-14.70 Units / -43% ROI)

Jump to:

• Keys to Winning for the Denver Nuggets
• Keys to Winning for the Minnesota Timberwolves
• Player Injuries for Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
• Denver Nuggets Offensive stats
• Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive stats
• Denver Nuggets Defensive stats
• Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive stats

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves

The Nuggets are 38-7 (.844) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .618

The Nuggets are 103-31 (.769) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .575

The Nuggets are 24-7 (.774) when they win the turnover margin this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .592

The Nuggets are 10-6 (.625) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .399

Minnesota Timberwolves: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Timberwolves are 30-13 (.698) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .572

The Timberwolves are 79-27 (.745) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .575

The Timberwolves are 27-11 (.711) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .573

The Timberwolves are 41-17 (.707) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .618

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 1.39 points per shot (10,010 points/7,196 shots) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.30

The Nuggets are shooting 40% from three (1,161/2,934) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets are shooting 41% from three (565/1,393) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (1,155 assists/ 512 TOs) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves are shooting 75% from the free throw line (1,558/2,072) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Timberwolves have an eFG% of 56% this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

The Timberwolves have averaged 14.3 second chance points per game (1,172 points/82 games) this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.0

The Timberwolves have a TS% of 54% on the road this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 6.8 steals per game (560 steals/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4

The Nuggets have averaged 37.1 defensive rebounds per game (3,039 rebounds/82 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.8

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (326 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have averaged 36.7 defensive rebounds per game (9,016 rebounds/246 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves have averaged 35.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,900 rebounds/82 games) this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.8

The Timberwolves have averaged 5.8 blocks per game (476 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Timberwolves have blocked 1,378 shots since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th most among NBA teams

The Timberwolves have averaged 5.4 blocks per game (882 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

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