Pacers vs Bucks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 16

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 16, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Bucks (50-19) are -13.5 favorites vs. the Pacers (31-38)
  • Total (Over/Under): 236.5 points
  • Thursday, March 16, 2023 at 8:00pm EDT
  • Watch the game on BSWI & BSIN

The Indiana Pacers visit Fiserv Forum to take on the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Bucks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-110).

The Pacers vs Bucks Over/Under is 237.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pacers are 37-32 against the spread, while the Bucks are 38-27 against the spread.


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Pacers vs. Bucks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Indiana Pacers+12.5 -110O 237.5 -115+575
Milwaukee Bucks -12.5 -110U 237.5 -115-900

Bucks vs Pacers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bucks will win Thursday‘s game with 77.0% confidence.

Bucks vs Pacers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Bucks will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Pacers and Bucks, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Indiana Pacers have covered the 2Q Spread in 47 of their last 76 games (+16.28 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 56 games (+13.78 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 64 games (+12.17 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have covered the 4Q Spread in 48 of their last 81 games (+12.16 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 23 of their last 37 games (+9.52 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 60 of their last 92 games (+24.70 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 79 games (+19.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 1Q Spread in 52 of their last 86 games (+15.60 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 52 of their last 86 games (+14.38 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 4Q Spread in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.58 Units / 52% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pacers have gone 37-32 (+1.8 Units / 2.37% ROI).

  • 31-38 against the Moneyline (+5.4 Units / 6.25% ROI)
  • 34-35 against the Over for game total points (-4.5 Units / -5.93% ROI)
  • 35-34 against the Under for game total points (-2.4 Units / -3.16% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 38-27 (+8.3 Units / 10.94% ROI).

  • 50-19 against the Moneyline (+17.05 Units / 9.82% ROI)
  • 33-36 against the Over for game total points (-6.6 Units / -8.7% ROI)
  • 36-33 against the Under for game total points (-0.3 Units / -0.4% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 32 of their last 92 games (-34.10 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 91 games (-28.36 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 90 games (-25.29 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 47 of their last 91 games (-22.61 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 2Q Spread in 41 of their last 93 games (-16.25 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 81 games (-38.30 Units / -42% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only covered the 1Q Spread in 26 of their last 81 games (-33.65 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only covered the 1H Spread in 29 of their last 79 games (-23.35 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 15 of their last 51 games (-22.66 Units / -40% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 20 of their last 56 games (-21.36 Units / -33% ROI)

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Indiana Pacers: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks

The Indiana Pacers are 9-37 (.196) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2021-22 season — sixth-worst among NBA teams. The Milwaukee Bucks made 14.4 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for second-highest among NBA teams.

The Indiana Pacers are 19-54 (.260) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — seventh-worst among NBA teams. The Milwaukee Bucks have averaged 55.9 rebounds per game (8,440 rebounds/151 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — second-highest among NBA teams.

The Pacers are 18-35 (.340) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .450

The Pacers are 27-49 (.355) when their opponent attempts 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .459

Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Indiana Pacers

The Bucks are 51-8 (.864) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564

The Bucks are 42-15 (.737) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Bucks are 44-16 (.733) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Bucks are 70-6 (.921) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .774

Injury Report: Bucks vs. PacersThursday‘s Game, Mar. 16

  • Brook Lopez (Bucks): Lopez is questionable for Thursday’s (Mar.16) game against Indiana.
  • Grayson Allen (Bucks): Allen is out for Thursday’s (Mar.16) game against Indiana.
  • Goran Dragic (Bucks): Dragic is questionable for Thursday’s (Mar.16) game against Indiana.
  • Jae Crowder (Bucks): Crowder is probable for Thursday’s (Mar.16) game against Indiana.
  • T.J. McConnell (Pacers): McConnell is questionable for Thursday’s (Mar.16) game against Milwaukee.
  • Buddy Hield (Pacers): Hield is questionable for Thursday’s (Mar.16) game against Milwaukee.
  • Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers): Haliburton is questionable for Thursday’s (Mar.16) game against Milwaukee.
  • Bennedict Mathurin (Pacers): Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said there’s no timetable for Mathurin’s return.
  • Myles Turner (Pacers): Turner is questionable for Thursday’s (Mar.16) game against Milwaukee.
  • Kendall Brown (Pacers): Brown underwent surgery and is out indefinitely, according to Tony East of SI.com.
  • Chris Duarte (Pacers): Duarte is out for Thursday’s (Mar.16) game against Milwaukee.

Indiana Pacers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 18.6 fast break points per game (1,282 points/69 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

The Pacers have averaged 16.0 fast break points per game (3,564 points/223 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.9

The Pacers have averaged 10.1 fast break points per game (699 points/69 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Pacers have averaged 17.7 fast break points per game (602 points/34 games) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.5

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks are shooting 43% from three (144/338) in the last two weeks — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Bucks have averaged 57.8 points per game (12,827 points/222 games) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 55.0

The Bucks have made 14.9 three-pointers per game this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Bucks have made 14.4 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.4

Indiana Pacers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (661 blocks/111 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Pacers have averaged 33.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,304 rebounds/69 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pacers have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (1,331 blocks/223 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Pacers have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (414 blocks/69 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 39.3 defensive rebounds per game (8,716 rebounds/222 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36.0

The Bucks have averaged 39.8 defensive rebounds per game (2,705 rebounds/68 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Bucks have averaged 39.1 defensive rebounds per game (5,866 rebounds/150 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.8

The Bucks have averaged 4.5 blocks per game (998 blocks/222 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.