Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Dec. 23

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 23, 2022, 4:30 PM
  • The Heat (16-16) are -6.5 favorites vs. the Pacers (16-16)
  • Total (Over/Under): 223.5 points
  • Friday, December 23, 2022 at 8:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSSUN & BSIN

The Indiana Pacers visit FTX Arena to take on the Miami Heat on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Miami.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-105).

The Pacers vs Heat Over/Under is 223.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pacers are 18-14 against the spread, while the Heat are 10-20 against the spread.


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Pacers vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Indiana Pacers+6.5 -115O 223.5 -110+195
Miami Heat -6.5 -105U 223.5 -110-250

Heat vs Pacers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Heat will win Friday‘s game with 65.3% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.7% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Pacers and Heat, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Indiana Pacers have covered the 2Q Spread in 50 of their last 77 games (+21.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 49 of their last 78 games (+19.05 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 71 games (+15.20 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 27 games (+13.35 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 27 games (+12.85 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 35 of their last 50 games at home (+14.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 33 games (+11.58 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 55 of their last 98 games (+11.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 48 games at home (+9.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 46 games at home (+9.25 Units / 18% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pacers have gone 18-14 (+2.6 Units / 7.39% ROI).

  • 16-16 against the Moneyline (+9.6 Units / 23.19% ROI)
  • 14-18 against the Over for game total points (-5.8 Units / -16.48% ROI)
  • 18-14 against the Under for game total points (+2.6 Units / 7.39% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 10-20 (-12 Units / -34.09% ROI).

  • 16-16 against the Moneyline (-13 Units / -20.67% ROI)
  • 15-16 against the Over for game total points (-2.6 Units / -7.39% ROI)
  • 16-15 against the Under for game total points (-0.5 Units / -1.42% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 45 of their last 99 games (-23.28 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 66 games (-22.39 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 41 of their last 100 games (-20.60 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 2Q Spread in 25 of their last 66 games (-19.94 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 44 of their last 100 games (-18.74 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 81 games (-38.55 Units / -43% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only covered the 1Q Spread in 25 of their last 81 games (-35.05 Units / -39% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 29 of their last 82 games (-27.15 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 71 games (-25.85 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 27 of their last 81 games (-19.30 Units / -21% ROI)

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Indiana Pacers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Pacers are 10-30 (.250) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .454

The Pacers are 5-14 (.263) when allowing fewer than 8 offense rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .480

The Pacers are 11-22 (.333) when allowing fewer than 8 offense rebounds since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .494

The Pacers are 4-32 (.111) when allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .199

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Indiana Pacers

The Heat are 45-18 (.714) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564

The Heat are 16-12 (.571) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Heat are 29-3 (.906) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .744

The Heat are 13-8 (.619) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Injury Report: Heat vs. PacersFriday‘s Game, Dec. 23

  • Caleb Martin (Heat): Martin is questionable for Friday’s (Dec 23) game against Indiana.
  • Jimmy Butler (Heat): Butler is probable for Friday’s (Dec 23) game against Indiana.
  • Gabe Vincent (Heat): Vincent is questionable for Friday’s (Dec 22) game against Indiana.
  • Udonis Haslem (Heat): Haslem is questionable for Friday’s (Dec 22) game against Indiana.
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): The Heat announced that Yurtseven underwent surgery and will be re-evaluated at a later date.
  • Dewayne Dedmon (Heat): Dedmon is probable for Friday’s (Dec 23) game against Indiana.
  • Daniel Theis (Pacers): Theis underwent surgery and is considered out indefinitely, according to Tony East of WTHR Channel 13 Indianapolis.
  • Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers): Haliburton is questionable for Friday’s (Dec 23) game against Miami.
  • Aaron Nesmith (Pacers): Nesmith is questionable for Friday’s (Dec 23) game against Miami.
  • Kendall Brown (Pacers): The Pacers announced that Brown is out indefinitely with a stress reaction in his right tibia.

Indiana Pacers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 14.9 assists per game (179 assists/12 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 11.8

The Pacers have made 15.5 three-pointers per game this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.2

The Pacers have averaged 59.3 points per game (712 points/12 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54.8

The Pacers averaged 115.3 points per game (8,302 points/72 games) in the 2020-21 season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 111.8

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 41.0 points in the paint per game (1,802 points/44 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46.7

The Heat have averaged 45.5 points in the paint per game (592 points/13 games) this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0

The Heat are shooting 87% from the free throw line (260/300) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Heat have averaged 12.9 turnovers per game (168 turnovers/13 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

Indiana Pacers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (996 blocks/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Pacers have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (489 blocks/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Pacers have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (507 blocks/84 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Pacers have averaged 6.6 blocks per game (79 blocks/12 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (38 blocks/13 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (298 blocks/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (152 blocks/50 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (281 blocks/80 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.