Indiana Pacers vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Jan. 20

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 20, 2023, 4:34 PM
  • The Nuggets (32-13) are -11.5 favorites vs. the Pacers (23-23)
  • Total (Over/Under): 239.5 points
  • Friday, January 20, 2023 at 9:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on ALT2 & BSIN

The Indiana Pacers visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EST in Denver.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-115).

The Pacers vs Nuggets Over/Under is 237.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pacers are 26-20 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 23-21 against the spread.


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Pacers vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Indiana Pacers+8.5 -105O 237.5 -110+300
Denver Nuggets -8.5 -115U 237.5 -110-400

Nuggets vs Pacers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Friday‘s game with 73.6% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pacers will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 52.3% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Pacers and Nuggets, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Indiana Pacers have covered the 2Q Spread in 45 of their last 70 games (+18.76 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 27 of their last 41 games (+15.61 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 41 games (+14.70 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Team Total Over in 51 of their last 83 games (+14.45 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have covered the 4Q Spread in 38 of their last 60 games (+14.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 54 of their last 87 games (+16.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 18 games at home (+15.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 41 games (+15.57 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 23 games at home (+12.75 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 51 of their last 85 games (+11.05 Units / 7% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pacers have gone 26-20 (+4 Units / 7.91% ROI).

  • 23-23 against the Moneyline (+11.45 Units / 20.21% ROI)
  • 22-24 against the Over for game total points (-4.4 Units / -8.7% ROI)
  • 24-22 against the Under for game total points (-0.2 Units / -0.4% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 23-21 (-0.1 Units / -0.2% ROI).

  • 32-13 against the Moneyline (+12.85 Units / 10.28% ROI)
  • 21-24 against the Over for game total points (-5.4 Units / -10.91% ROI)
  • 24-21 against the Under for game total points (+0.9 Units / 1.82% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 89 games (-29.40 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 40 of their last 82 games (-26.13 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 68 games (-23.42 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 82 games (-19.75 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 89 games (-18.30 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 70 games (-39.85 Units / -51% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only covered the 1Q Spread in 19 of their last 70 games (-35.35 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 83 games (-26.75 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 32 of their last 83 games (-21.80 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 83 games (-18.80 Units / -21% ROI)

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Indiana Pacers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Pacers are 10-30 (.250) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .454

The Pacers are 5-14 (.263) when allowing fewer than 8 offense rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .480

The Pacers are 11-22 (.333) when allowing fewer than 8 offense rebounds since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .494

The Pacers are 4-32 (.111) when allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .199

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Indiana Pacers

The Nuggets are 51-19 (.729) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568

The Nuggets are 33-11 (.750) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Nuggets are 28-15 (.651) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Nuggets are 17-6 (.739) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. PacersFriday‘s Game, Jan. 20

  • Peyton Watson (Nuggets): Watson will be sidelined for a couple weeks, according to Harrison Wind of TheDNVR.com.
  • Jeff Green (Nuggets): Green is questionable for Friday’s (Jan 20) game against Utah.
  • Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): The Nuggets announced that Gillespie is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery to repair a lower left leg fracture.
  • Jamal Murray (Nuggets): Murray is probable for Friday’s (Jan 20) game against Utah.
  • Daniel Theis (Pacers): Theis underwent surgery and is considered out indefinitely, according to Tony East of WTHR Channel 13 Indianapolis.
  • Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers): The Pacers announced that Haliburton suffered a sprained elbow and a mild knee bruise and will be re-evaluated in two weeks.
  • Kendall Brown (Pacers): The Pacers announced that Brown is out indefinitely with a stress reaction in his right tibia.

Indiana Pacers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 14.9 assists per game (179 assists/12 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 11.8

The Pacers have made 15.5 three-pointers per game this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.2

The Pacers have averaged 59.3 points per game (712 points/12 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54.8

The Pacers averaged 115.3 points per game (8,302 points/72 games) in the 2020-21 season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 111.8

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,136/4,216) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,791/7,476) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 44% from three (61/138) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets are shooting 42% from three (171/404) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

Indiana Pacers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (996 blocks/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Pacers have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (489 blocks/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Pacers have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (507 blocks/84 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Pacers have averaged 6.6 blocks per game (79 blocks/12 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (158 blocks/45 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (348 blocks/86 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (196 blocks/50 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (329 blocks/81 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.