Pacers vs Pistons Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 11, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Pacers (30-37) are -5.5 favorites vs. the Pistons (15-52)
  • Total (Over/Under): 228.5 points
  • Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 7:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSDET & BSIN

The Indiana Pacers visit Little Caesars Arena to take on the Detroit Pistons on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Detroit.

The Pacers are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Pacers vs Pistons Over/Under is 228.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pacers are 36-31 against the spread, while the Pistons are 29-35 against the spread.


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Pacers vs. Pistons Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Indiana Pacers-5.5 -110O 228.5 -115-225
Detroit Pistons +5.5 -110U 228.5 -115+180

Pistons vs Pacers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Pacers will win Saturday‘s game with 64.1% confidence.

Pistons vs Pacers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pacers will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.4% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Pacers and Pistons, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Indiana Pacers have covered the 2Q Spread in 46 of their last 74 games (+16.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 54 games (+14.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 62 games (+12.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have covered the 4Q Spread in 48 of their last 81 games (+12.16 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 44 of their last 73 games (+11.68 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 52 of their last 78 games (+22.07 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 49 of their last 78 games (+16.93 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 41 of their last 82 games (+15.22 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the 2Q Spread in 49 of their last 83 games (+11.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+8.80 Units / 13% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pacers have gone 36-31 (+1.9 Units / 2.58% ROI).

  • 30-37 against the Moneyline (+6.05 Units / 7.28% ROI)
  • 33-34 against the Over for game total points (-4.4 Units / -5.97% ROI)
  • 34-33 against the Under for game total points (-2.3 Units / -3.12% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pistons have gone 29-35 (-9.55 Units / -12.96% ROI).

  • 15-52 against the Moneyline (-20.1 Units / -28.57% ROI)
  • 34-33 against the Over for game total points (-2.3 Units / -3.12% ROI)
  • 33-34 against the Under for game total points (-4.4 Units / -5.97% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 80 games (-33.16 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 78 games (-26.10 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 83 games (-25.85 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 26 games (-22.25 Units / -81% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only covered the 1Q Spread in 32 of their last 81 games (-22.15 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 81 games (-39.95 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only covered the 1Q Spread in 25 of their last 81 games (-35.80 Units / -40% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only covered the 1H Spread in 30 of their last 81 games (-23.55 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 73 games (-22.18 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 54 games (-21.32 Units / -34% ROI)

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Indiana Pacers: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Pistons

The Indiana Pacers are 25-43 (.368) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — eighth-worst among NBA teams. The Chicago Bulls have averaged 13.3 turnovers per game (1,937 turnovers/146 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — sixth-lowest among NBA teams.

The Pacers are 20-64 (.238) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .276

The Pacers are 9-36 (.200) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .306

The Pacers are 46-65 (.414) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .457

Detroit Pistons: Keys to the Game vs. the Indiana Pacers

The Pistons are 4-32 (.111) when they lose the turnover margin this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .433

The Pistons are 11-60 (.155) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .425

The Pistons are 23-82 (.219) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .453

The Pistons are 2-37 (.051) when losing the rebounding margin this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .326

Injury Report: Pistons vs. PacersSaturday‘s Game, Mar. 11

  • Isaiah Stewart (Pistons): The Pistons announced that Stewart has a left shoulder impingement and will re-evaluated in 3-4 weeks.
  • Jaden Ivey (Pistons): Ivey is out for Saturday’s (Mar.11) game against Indiana.
  • Cade Cunningham (Pistons): Cunningham had season-ending surgery on his shin. He plans on on being ready for next season, according to James Edwards III of The Athletic.
  • Alec Burks (Pistons): Burks is out for Saturday’s (Mar.11) game against Indiana.
  • Hamidou Diallo (Pistons): Diallo is out for Saturday’s (Mar.11) game against Indiana.
  • Bojan Bogdanovic (Pistons): Bogdanovic is out for Saturday’s (Mar.11) game against Indiana.
  • Marvin Bagley III (Pistons): Bagley is probable for Saturday’s (Mar.11) game against Indiana.
  • T.J. McConnell (Pacers): McConnell is questionable for Saturday’s (Mar.11) game against Detroit.
  • Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers): Haliburton is questionable for Saturday’s (Mar.11) game against Detroit.
  • Bennedict Mathurin (Pacers): Mathurin is out for Saturday’s (Mar.11) game against Detroit.
  • Myles Turner (Pacers): Turner is questionable for Saturday’s (Mar.11) game against Detroit.
  • Kendall Brown (Pacers): Brown underwent surgery and is out indefinitely, according to Tony East of SI.com.

Indiana Pacers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 17.9 fast break points per game (1,965 points/110 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.2

The Pacers have averaged 8.5 fast break points per game (546 points/64 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.5

The Pacers have averaged 18.2 fast break points per game (565 points/31 games) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.5

The Pacers have averaged 18.9 fast break points per game (1,210 points/64 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

Detroit Pistons Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons are shooting 44% (2,817/6,341) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Pistons have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (717 assists/ 477 TOs) in the first half this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Pistons have an eFG% of 51% at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

The Pistons have a TS% of 48% in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50%

Indiana Pacers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (644 blocks/108 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Pacers have averaged 5.9 blocks per game (1,295 blocks/218 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Pacers have averaged 5.9 blocks per game (378 blocks/64 games) this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Pacers have averaged 34.7 defensive rebounds per game (7,565 rebounds/218 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36.0

Detroit Pistons Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons have averaged 32.1 defensive rebounds per game (6,972 rebounds/217 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.9

The Pistons have averaged 31.8 defensive rebounds per game (4,615 rebounds/145 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.6

The Pistons have averaged 31.6 defensive rebounds per game (1,990 rebounds/63 games) this season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.0

The Pistons have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (237 blocks/63 games) this season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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