New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Jan. 7

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 07, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Mavericks (22-17) are -7.5 favorites vs. the Pelicans (24-15)
  • Total (Over/Under): 224.5 points
  • Saturday, January 7, 2023 at 8:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSSW & BSNO

The New Orleans Pelicans visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Dallas.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Pelicans vs Mavericks Over/Under is 223.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pelicans are 20-19 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 13-24 against the spread.


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Pelicans vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
New Orleans Pelicans+9.5 -110O 223.5 -110+340
Dallas Mavericks -9.5 -110U 223.5 -110-450

Mavericks vs Pelicans Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Saturday‘s game with 67.6% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pelicans will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Pelicans and Mavericks, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 30 of their last 42 away games (+16.85 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 54 of their last 88 games (+16.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 35 away games (+13.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 53 of their last 89 games (+13.41 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have covered the 2Q Spread in 21 of their last 29 games (+12.44 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 64 of their last 100 games (+24.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 44 games at home (+10.30 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.25 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+9.16 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games (+8.80 Units / 11% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pelicans have gone 20-19 (-0.9 Units / -2.1% ROI).

  • 24-15 against the Moneyline (+2.75 Units / 3.58% ROI)
  • 22-17 against the Over for game total points (+3.3 Units / 7.69% ROI)
  • 17-22 against the Under for game total points (-7.2 Units / -16.78% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 13-24 (-13.4 Units / -31.24% ROI).

  • 22-17 against the Moneyline (-13.5 Units / -15.13% ROI)
  • 22-17 against the Over for game total points (+3.3 Units / 7.69% ROI)
  • 17-22 against the Under for game total points (-7.2 Units / -16.78% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 100 games (-37.24 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 47 of their last 96 games (-19.90 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 76 games (-17.70 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 32 of their last 75 games (-17.29 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the Spread in 14 of their last 44 games (-16.80 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 90 games (-25.55 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 90 games (-22.57 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 79 games (-21.25 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 42 away games (-21.10 Units / -46% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 90 games (-19.79 Units / -19% ROI)

Jump to:

New Orleans Pelicans: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Pelicans are 6-14 (.300) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .425

The Pelicans are 11-22 (.333) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Pelicans are 29-53 (.354) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .432

The Pelicans are 18-36 (.333) when their opponent attempts 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .451

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Pelicans

The Mavericks are 25-12 (.676) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Mavericks are 22-6 (.786) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .506

The Mavericks are 35-19 (.648) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Mavericks are 46-21 (.687) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544

Injury Report: Mavericks vs. PelicansSaturday‘s Game, Jan. 7

  • Maxi Kleber (Mavericks): The Mavericks announced that Kleber underwent surgery for a right hamstring tear and there’s no timetable for his return.
  • Josh Green (Mavericks): Green hasn’t played since Dec. 9 against Milwaukee. A timetable for his return hasn’t been announced.
  • Dorian Finney-Smith (Mavericks): Mavericks coach Jason Kidd said Finney-Smith will miss at least another couple weeks, according to NBA writer Marc Stein.
  • Luka Doncic (Mavericks): Doncic is probable for Saturday’s (Jan 7) game against New Orleans.
  • E.J. Liddell (Pelicans): The Pelicans announced that E.J. Liddell tore his right ACL and will miss most of the season.
  • Zion Williamson (Pelicans): Williamson sustained a right hamstring strain during Monday’s (Jan. 2) game against Philadelphia. He will be re-evaluated in three weeks.
  • Brandon Ingram (Pelicans): Ingram hasn’t played since Nov. 25 against Memphis. A timetable for his return hasn’t been announced.

New Orleans Pelicans Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans have 24.5 free throw attempts per game since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 21.9

The Pelicans have averaged 11.9 offensive rebounds per game (1,987 rebounds/167 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 10.1

The Pelicans have made 10.2 three-pointers per game this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.1

The Pelicans are shooting 32% from three (496/1,534) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 7.9 assists per game (95 assists/12 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 11.8

The Mavericks have averaged 49.9 points per game (599 points/12 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54.7

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.1 (95 assists/ 88 TOs) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Mavericks have a 32% free throw rate (321 free throw attempts/991 field goal attempts) this season — 2nd highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 26%

New Orleans Pelicans Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans have averaged 33.1 defensive rebounds per game (3,149 rebounds/95 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.8

The Pelicans have averaged 8.5 steals per game (111 steals/13 games) this season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Pelicans have averaged 8.5 steals per game (417 steals/49 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Pelicans have averaged 8.3 steals per game (789 steals/95 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (1,106 steals/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Mavericks have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (327 blocks/84 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Mavericks have averaged 31.1 defensive rebounds per game (373 rebounds/12 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.2

The Mavericks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (552 steals/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6


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