Pistons vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 8

• The – are favorites vs. the –
• Total (Over/Under): Total points
• Watch the game on FSUN | FDDT

The Detroit Pistons visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:00 pm in Miami, FL.

The – are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Pistons vs Heat Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pistons are 32-30 against the spread, while the Heat are 37-26 against the spread.

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Pistons vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

Heat vs Pistons Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Pistons will win Sunday‘s game with 55.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Pistons and Heat.

Heat vs Pistons Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pistons will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 54.5% confidence.

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Pistons Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Detroit Pistons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games (+13.90 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Detroit Pistons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 36 of their last 50 games (+11.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Detroit Pistons have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Detroit Pistons have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Detroit Pistons have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.55 Units / 17% ROI)

Heat Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 33 of their last 50 games (+14.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 32 of their last 50 games (+13.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+12.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+11.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games (+10.00 Units / 54% ROI)

Detroit Pistons Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pistons have gone 32-30 (-1 Units / -1.47% ROI).

• 45-17 against the Moneyline (+4.3 Units / 2.49% ROI)
• 26-36 against the Over for game total points (-13.6 Units / -19.94% ROI)
• 36-26 against the Under for game total points (+7.4 Units / 10.85% ROI)

Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 37-26 (+8.4 Units / 11.93% ROI).

• 35-29 against the Moneyline (+3.1 Units / 2.58% ROI)
• 33-30 against the Over for game total points (+0 Units / 0% ROI)
• 30-33 against the Under for game total points (-6.3 Units / -8.95% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:

• The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 40 games at home (-18.00 Units / -39% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 40 games (-13.50 Units / -30% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 50 games (-12.85 Units / -22% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 10 games (-12.65 Units / -78% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 21 of their last 50 games (-12.35 Units / -21% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Pistons:

• The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 35 games (-18.85 Units / -46% ROI)
• The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 50 games (-17.30 Units / -30% ROI)
• The Detroit Pistons have only hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 45 games (-15.90 Units / -32% ROI)
• The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 25 of their last 50 games (-14.83 Units / -17% ROI)
• The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 35 away games (-14.60 Units / -32% ROI)

Jump to:

• Keys to Winning for the Detroit Pistons
• Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
• Player Injuries for Detroit Pistons vs. Miami Heat
• Detroit Pistons Offensive stats
• Miami Heat Offensive stats
• Detroit Pistons Defensive stats
• Miami Heat Defensive stats

Detroit Pistons: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Pistons were 4-21 (.160) when attempting 25 or more free throws in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Pistons were 4-31 (.114) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points in the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .431

The Pistons are 4-1 (.800) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .411

The Pistons were 2-38 (.050) when losing the rebounding margin in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .357

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Pistons

The Heat are 19-10 (.655) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .523

The Heat are 3-8 (.273) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .411

The Heat are 1-5 (.167) when losing the rebounding margin by 10 or more this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .236

The Heat are 5-5 (.500) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .589

Detroit Pistons Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons have averaged 30.6 points in the paint per game (1,864 points/61 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.2

The Pistons have made 10.8 three-pointers per game this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.2

The Pistons averaged 10.4 fast break points per game (850 points/82 games) in the first half last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Pistons have averaged 57.2 points in the paint per game (3,490 points/61 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.5

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 122.0 points per game (3,782 points/31 games) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 115.8

The Heat shot 43% (413/964) in close and late situations in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Heat have averaged 120.2 points per game (7,571 points/63 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 115.2

The Heat have averaged 19.2 fast break points per game (595 points/31 games) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.2

Detroit Pistons Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons have averaged 6.4 blocks per game (389 blocks/61 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Pistons have averaged 10.5 steals per game (642 steals/61 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.5

The Pistons have blocked 389 shots this season — most among NBA teams

The Pistons have allowed a TS% of 47% at home this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 51%

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat averaged 3.8 blocks per game (314 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 37.5 defensive rebounds per game (2,363 rebounds/63 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.0

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (435 blocks/114 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

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