Rockets vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 28

• The – are favorites vs. the –
• Total (Over/Under): Total points
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The Houston Rockets visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm in Miami, FL.

The – are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Rockets vs Heat Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Rockets are 27-31 against the spread, while the Heat are 33-26 against the spread.

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Rockets vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

Heat vs Rockets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Saturday‘s game with 56.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Rockets and Heat.

Heat vs Rockets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Rockets will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 54.9% confidence.

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Rockets Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Houston Rockets have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 27 of their last 35 games (+17.90 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Houston Rockets have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 45 games (+13.50 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Houston Rockets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+11.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Houston Rockets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 27 of their last 45 away games (+9.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Houston Rockets have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 away games (+8.90 Units / 13% ROI)

Heat Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 33 of their last 50 games (+14.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+12.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+11.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+7.90 Units / 30% ROI)

Houston Rockets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Rockets have gone 27-31 (-7.05 Units / -11.06% ROI).

• 37-21 against the Moneyline (-18.45 Units / -8.89% ROI)
• 25-33 against the Over for game total points (-11.27 Units / -17.67% ROI)
• 33-25 against the Under for game total points (+5.5 Units / 8.61% ROI)

Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 33-26 (+4.4 Units / 6.67% ROI).

• 31-29 against the Moneyline (-2.4 Units / -2.31% ROI)
• 31-28 against the Over for game total points (+0.2 Units / 0.3% ROI)
• 28-31 against the Under for game total points (-6.1 Units / -9.24% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:

• The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 35 games at home (-16.65 Units / -41% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 50 games (-15.75 Units / -23% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only covered the 2H Spread in 17 of their last 45 games at home (-14.81 Units / -29% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 20 of their last 50 games (-14.45 Units / -25% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 20 of their last 50 games (-13.90 Units / -24% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Rockets:

• The Houston Rockets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 25 of their last 50 games (-29.75 Units / -23% ROI)
• The Houston Rockets have only hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 21 away games (-29.75 Units / -51% ROI)
• The Houston Rockets have only hit the 2H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 35 games (-23.20 Units / -57% ROI)
• The Houston Rockets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 18 of their last 50 games (-19.65 Units / -33% ROI)
• The Houston Rockets have only hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 45 games (-17.97 Units / -36% ROI)

Jump to:

• Keys to Winning for the Houston Rockets
• Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
• Player Injuries for Houston Rockets vs. Miami Heat
• Houston Rockets Offensive stats
• Miami Heat Offensive stats
• Houston Rockets Defensive stats
• Miami Heat Defensive stats

Houston Rockets: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Rockets are winless (0-3) when losing the rebounding margin by 10 or more this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .243

The Rockets are 14-1 (.933) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2024-25 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .559

The Rockets are 5-1 (.833) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .407

The Rockets were 2-19 (.095) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers in the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .353

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Rockets

The Heat are 4-17 (.190) when they lose the turnover margin this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .396

The Heat are 1-5 (.167) when losing the rebounding margin by 10 or more this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .243

The Heat are 7-19 (.269) when their opponents turns the ball fewer than 10 times since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .416

The Heat were 10-1 (.909) when winning the rebounding margin by 10 or more last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .762

Houston Rockets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets shot 41% (409/1,011) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Rockets averaged 22.5 offensive rebounds per game (1,844 rebounds/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 17.0

The Rockets have averaged 22.5 offensive rebounds per game (3,155 rebounds/140 games) since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 17.4

The Rockets had an eFG% of 46% in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 10.4 fast break points per game (614 points/59 games) in the first half this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Heat have averaged 19.2 fast break points per game (537 points/28 games) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.2

The Heat averaged 45.1 points in the paint per game (1,850 points/41 games) on the road in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7

The Heat shot 43% (436/1,016) in close and late situations last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

Houston Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets averaged 36.3 defensive rebounds per game (2,974 rebounds/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Rockets have averaged 35.5 defensive rebounds per game (2,059 rebounds/58 games) this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.0

The Rockets averaged 8.4 steals per game (689 steals/82 games) last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.2

The Rockets have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (346 blocks/58 games) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (845 blocks/223 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat averaged 3.8 blocks per game (314 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (415 blocks/110 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

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