Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Dec. 29

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 29, 2022, 4:30 PM
  • The Mavericks (19-16) are -10.5 favorites vs. the Rockets (10-24)
  • Total (Over/Under): 225.5 points
  • Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 8:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSSW & SportsNet SW

The Houston Rockets visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EST in Dallas.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-105).

The Rockets vs Mavericks Over/Under is 225.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Rockets are 15-16 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 12-21 against the spread.


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Rockets vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Houston Rockets+10.5 -115O 225.5 -115+375
Dallas Mavericks -10.5 -105U 225.5 -115-500

Mavericks vs Rockets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Thursday‘s game with 72.8% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Rockets will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Rockets and Mavericks, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 46 of their last 79 games (+10.75 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 38 away games (+10.56 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 38 away games (+10.45 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.20 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+8.05 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 64 of their last 98 games (+27.09 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games at home (+11.16 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 42 games at home (+10.30 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 3Q Spread in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+8.04 Units / 14% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Rockets have gone 15-16 (-2.6 Units / -6.95% ROI).

  • 10-24 against the Moneyline (-1.4 Units / -3.97% ROI)
  • 17-17 against the Over for game total points (-1.7 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 17-17 against the Under for game total points (-1.7 Units / -4.55% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 12-21 (-11.1 Units / -28.83% ROI).

  • 19-16 against the Moneyline (-15.5 Units / -19.83% ROI)
  • 20-15 against the Over for game total points (+3.5 Units / 9.09% ROI)
  • 15-20 against the Under for game total points (-7 Units / -18.18% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 100 games (-39.13 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 45 of their last 92 games (-19.08 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 34 of their last 72 games (-16.95 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 87 games (-15.60 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 88 games (-14.72 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 79 games (-19.79 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 70 games (-19.40 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 70 games (-18.65 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 29 of their last 70 games (-17.04 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 27 of their last 81 games (-16.05 Units / -19% ROI)

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Houston Rockets: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Rockets are 14-56 (.197) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Rockets are 10-38 (.208) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .553

The Rockets are 5-64 (.072) when their eFG is 50% or worse since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .224

The Rockets are 2-19 (.095) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .542

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Rockets

The Mavericks are 25-12 (.676) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Mavericks are 22-6 (.786) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .506

The Mavericks are 35-19 (.648) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Mavericks are 46-21 (.687) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544

Injury Report: Mavericks vs. RocketsThursday‘s Game, Dec. 29

  • Maxi Kleber (Mavericks): The Mavericks announced that Kleber underwent surgery for a right hamstring tear and there’s no timetable for his return.
  • Josh Green (Mavericks): Green hasn’t played since Dec. 9 against Milwaukee. A timetable for his return hasn’t been announced.
  • Reggie Bullock (Mavericks): Bullock is questionable for Thursday’s (Dec. 29) game against Houston.
  • Dorian Finney-Smith (Mavericks): Finney-Smith is out for Thursday’s (Dec. 29) game against Houston.
  • Jae’Sean Tate (Rockets): Tate remains without a timetable to return, according to Adam Spolane of Sports Radio 610 Houston.

Houston Rockets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.3 (285 assists/ 221 TOs) this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (3,913 assists/ 2,527 TOs) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Rockets have averaged 15.8 turnovers per game (1,373 turnovers/87 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.2

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.1 (52 assists/ 48 TOs) at home this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 7.9 assists per game (95 assists/12 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 11.8

The Mavericks have averaged 49.9 points per game (599 points/12 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54.7

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.1 (95 assists/ 88 TOs) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Mavericks have a 32% free throw rate (321 free throw attempts/991 field goal attempts) this season — 2nd highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 26%

Houston Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets have averaged 32.3 defensive rebounds per game (3,071 rebounds/95 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.8

The Rockets have averaged 32.7 defensive rebounds per game (5,465 rebounds/167 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.1

The Rockets have averaged 4.7 blocks per game (61 blocks/13 games) this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Rockets have averaged 31.5 defensive rebounds per game (410 rebounds/13 games) this season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.3

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (1,106 steals/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Mavericks have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (327 blocks/84 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Mavericks have averaged 31.1 defensive rebounds per game (373 rebounds/12 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.2

The Mavericks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (552 steals/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.