Rockets vs Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 04, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Thunder (24-27) are -9.5 favorites vs. the Rockets (13-39)
  • Total (Over/Under): 231.5 points
  • Saturday, February 4, 2023 at 8:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSOK & SportsNet SW

The Houston Rockets visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Oklahoma City.

The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-105).

The Rockets vs Thunder Over/Under is 230.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Rockets are 20-29 against the spread, while the Thunder are 32-19 against the spread.


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Rockets vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Houston Rockets+10.5 -115O 230.5 -115+340
Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 -105U 230.5 -115-450

Thunder vs Rockets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Saturday‘s game with 70.4% confidence.

Thunder vs Rockets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Rockets will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Rockets and Thunder, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 20 away games (+11.55 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have covered the 1H Spread in 28 of their last 45 games (+10.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 18 of their last 38 games (+9.70 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 68 games (+8.10 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 47 of their last 83 games (+7.72 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 2H Moneyline in 46 of their last 77 games (+35.44 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+22.20 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 36 games at home (+18.65 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 48 of their last 79 games (+15.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 38 of their last 72 games (+13.22 Units / 17% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Rockets have gone 20-29 (-11.9 Units / -20.8% ROI).

  • 13-39 against the Moneyline (-10.7 Units / -20.08% ROI)
  • 25-27 against the Over for game total points (-4.7 Units / -8.22% ROI)
  • 27-25 against the Under for game total points (-0.5 Units / -0.87% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 32-19 (+11.2 Units / 19.98% ROI).

  • 24-27 against the Moneyline (+14.8 Units / 25.23% ROI)
  • 28-22 against the Over for game total points (+3.8 Units / 6.77% ROI)
  • 22-28 against the Under for game total points (-8.8 Units / -15.69% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 77 games (-28.05 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 21 of their last 83 games (-26.70 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 83 games (-21.69 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 77 games (-20.60 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 27 of their last 80 games (-18.15 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 83 games (-26.35 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 33 of their last 83 games (-23.10 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 83 games (-20.70 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 83 games (-18.63 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 30 of their last 83 games (-18.58 Units / -22% ROI)

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Houston Rockets: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Rockets are 18-70 (.202) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .541

The Rockets are 17-80 (.175) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .457

The Rockets are 14-52 (.212) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

The Rockets are 7-75 (.085) when their eFG is 50% or worse since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .225

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Rockets

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 14-35 (.286) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — fourth-worst among NBA teams. The Atlanta Hawks have averaged 11.7 turnovers per game (1,524 turnovers/130 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — second-lowest among NBA teams.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 4-27 (.129) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — fourth-worst among NBA teams. The Atlanta Hawks has shot 36% from three (1,564/4,294) since the start of the 2021-22 season — eighth-best among NBA teams.

The Thunder are 12-59 (.169) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .317

The Thunder are 25-41 (.379) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .542

Injury Report: Thunder vs. RocketsSaturday‘s Game, Feb. 4

  • Chet Holmgren (Thunder): Holmgren will miss the 2022-23 season with Lisfranc injury to his right foot, according to Adrian Wojnarowsk of ESPN.
  • Aleksej Pokusevski (Thunder): Thunder announced Pokusevski suffered a non-displaced tibial plateau fracture in his left leg and will be reevaluated in 6-8 weeks.
  • Luguentz Dort (Thunder): Dort is out for Saturday’s (Feb.4) game against Houston.
  • Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (Thunder): Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said Robinson-Earl is close to returning.
  • Jalen Green (Rockets): The Rockets have listed Green as OUT for Friday’s game (Feb. 3) against the Raptors.
  • Kevin Porter Jr. (Rockets): Porter Jr. said there’s still no timetable for his return, according to Michael Shapiro of SI.com.

Houston Rockets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (2,402 assists/ 1,596 TOs) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (1,441 assists/ 989 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (2,275 assists/ 1,488 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (1,019 assists/ 740 TOs) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 1.18 points per shot (10,701 points/9,042 shots) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.26

The Thunder have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (4,560 assists/ 2,820 TOs) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Thunder are shooting 33% from three (1,206/3,646) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder have averaged 1.20 points per shot (13,985 points/11,665 shots) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.27

Houston Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets have averaged 32.8 defensive rebounds per game (4,201 rebounds/128 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.7

The Rockets have averaged 33.5 defensive rebounds per game (1,541 rebounds/46 games) this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.0

The Rockets have blocked 486 shots on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 9th most among NBA teams

The Rockets have averaged 33.0 defensive rebounds per game (6,595 rebounds/200 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.0

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 5.2 blocks per game (243 blocks/47 games) this season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Thunder have 1,000 steals since the start of the 2021-22 season — 9th most among NBA teams

The Thunder have 378 steals this season — 8th most among NBA teams

The Thunder have averaged 7.8 steals per game (1,000 steals/129 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5


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