LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers will welcome the Houston Rockets to town for an NBA Christmas Day showdown. Tipoff is 8 p.m. ET on Thursday at Crypto.com Arena on ABC/ESPN.
James, who has the record for most wins on Christmas Day with 11, might not have many more chances to play on this holiday. The Rockets, meanwhile, are playing on Christmas Day for the first time since 2019.
Houston is a short road favorite in this matchup between two Western Conference heavyweights.
Rockets vs. Lakers Prediction: Thursday, Dec. 25
- Rockets moneyline (-150) – Prediction made Monday
Based on the initial NBA betting lines, I believe Houston will win as my Rockets vs. Lakers prediction on NBA Christmas Day.
As illustrated by the line, the Rockets are clearly the superior team. But the difference might be even greater if you look beneath the surface.
The Lakers have the better record (19-9), but their net rating (+0.2) has them as a league-average team. According to Basketball Reference, the Lakers’ expected record is 14-14.
Los Angeles has exceeded expectations by winning many close games. The team is 5-0 in one-possession games this year, the best such clip in the Western Conference.
The Lakers have also gotten to this point by beating up on bad teams. They are 12-3 against teams below .500 and 7-6 against squads with winning records.
Basically, I’m counting on some regression for the Lakers in the coming weeks. It could start in a matchup against the Rockets, who rank third in the NBA with a net rating of +7.8. They are even better than their record (17-10) would suggest.
Another factor working in Houston’s favor is health. Austin Reaves played 22 minutes in his first game back from injury on Tuesday. Luka Doncic is questionable after suffering an injury over the weekend. The status of the Lakers’ two best players will be worth monitoring this week.
Either way, I like backing Houston to defeat Los Angeles on Christmas Day.
Prediction: Rockets moneyline (-150)
Rockets vs. Lakers Odds for NBA Christmas Day
- Rockets spread: -3.5
- Lakers spread: +3.5
- Total: 230.5
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