- Get NBA picks and analysis for Rockets vs. Thunder.
- Oklahoma City is a 6.5-point favorite to win Tuesday’s opener.
The defending champions will kick off the 2025-26 season. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Houston Rockets at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday at Paycom Center on Peacock.
These two teams finished at the top of the Western Conference last year. Oklahoma City was the No. 1 seed in back-to-back seasons, while Houston claimed the No. 2 seed and added Kevin Durant in the offseason following a first-round exit.
Oklahoma City is a 6.5-point favorite to handle business on ring night. However, my Rockets vs. Thunder prediction prefers a player prop on Tuesday.
Rockets vs. Thunder Prediction: NBA Opening Night
- Amen Thompson under 21.5 points + assists (-122) – Pick made Oct. 20
My favorite Rockets vs. Thunder prediction suggests backing the under on Amen Thompson’s points and assists combo prop (21.5) for Tuesday’s game in Oklahoma City.
I’m fading the market on the Thompson hype, at least on opening night. He enters the year as the NBA Most Improved Player odds favorite, with everyone expecting him to shoulder more on-ball responsibility.
That’s certainly a fair assumption, as Fred VanVleet is out for the year and the Rockets need someone to step up as the lead facilitator. But learning how to play point guard in the NBA is extremely difficult, particularly when the first test is a matchup against the top defensive team in the league.
Thompson’s assists prop for Tuesday’s opener is 5.5 after averaging 3.8 dimes last year, a sign that the market is baking in his increased usage. In the preseason, Thompson recorded 12 assists in three games.
Rather than pay the -155 price for this under, I prefer to back the combo prop because the matchup is tough and the Rockets added one of the best scoring forwards of all time. Durant should get plenty of shots in his first game with Houston.
The Dunks & Threes model projects 13 points and three assists for Thompson on Tuesday. I don’t expect quite as much wiggle room, but I do like this under as long as it’s at 20.5 or better.
Prediction: Amen Thompson under 21.5 points and assists (-122)
Rockets vs. Thunder Odds: Tuesday, Oct. 21
- Rockets spread: +6.5
- Thunder spread: -6.5
- Total: 227.5
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
