The Orlando Magic made Paolo Banchero the first overall selection in the 2022 NBA draft, and the 19-year-old has the best NBA odds to win Rookie of the Year in 2022-23.
In what was a very dramatic night surrounding the first overall pick, with plenty of line movement present, the Magic ultimately decided on Banchero. The forward played two games in the NBA’s summer league for the Magic and averaged 20 points per game before the team eventually shut him down to see what some of their other prospects could do.
The ceiling on this player is high, and there’s a lot to like about his fit with the Magic, which currently has him as the odds-on favorite to win Rookie of the Year at +350.
There’s undoubtedly value present among the top five players with the highest odds to take home the award. Still, you can make a case that the number one overall pick should thrive in his new environment, and there’s still an appetizing price tag attached to him in the futures market.
A large chunk of tickets have come in towards Jaden Ivey, who currently owns 37.5% of tickets. Three other players hold more than 10% of tickets, led by Chet Holmgren with 17%. Both Banchero and Bennedict Mathurin own 10% of tickets.
Looking at the money, three players have combined to hold more than 70% of the handle. Holmgren currently owns the highest handle percentage at 25.3%, followed by Keegan Murray with 23.6%, and Ivey with 22.4%.
Slightly behind Banchero in odds for the award is Holmgren of the Oklahoma City Thunder, who was selected second overall in the 2022 NBA Draft. The 7-foot big man currently boasts odds of +375, and he should be a great fit alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in OKC.
The Gonzaga product averaged 14.1 points and 9.9 rebounds per game in his final collegiate season. Holmgren is great at creating his own shot and has the tools to be a foundational piece for this organization moving forward.
Jabari Smith Jr. was talked up for a long time as the top prospect in the 2022 draft, and after falling to the No. 3 pick with the Houston Rockets, there will likely be a chip on his shoulder as he enters his rookie campaign. Smith Jr. and Jalen Green give the Rockets two athletic players to build around, and there’s definite value in his current price to win Rookie of the Year at +400.
Rounding out the top five in current odds are Ivey at +650 of the Detroit Pistons and Murray at +900 for the Sacramento Kings.
| Player | Opening Odds | Current Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero | +300 | +350 |
| Chet Holmgren | +475 | +375 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | +350 | +400 |
| Jaden Ivey | +600 | +650 |
| Keegan Murray | +900 | +900 |
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