Southwest Division Predictions, Odds: Projected Standings 2024-25

After last year’s trip to the NBA Finals, the Dallas Mavericks enter the new season as the class of the Southwest Division.

The Mavs are +150 betting favorites to win the division after doing so last year for the first time since 2020-21. But is the market giving enough respect to the Memphis Grizzlies or New Orleans Pelicans?

Who will emerge as division champions this year? Here’s a look at the latest NBA betting odds and my best bet for the Southwest Division:

Southwest Division Winner Odds 2024-25

• Dallas Mavericks +150
• Memphis Grizzlies +240
• New Orleans Pelicans +350
• Houston Rockets +600
• San Antonio Spurs +3000

Southwest Division Win Totals & Projected Standings

Southwest Division Betting Prediction

Prediction: Grizzlies to Win Southwest (+310)

Note: This line has moved to +240 since making the pick.

This market is interesting because the Mavericks have received a ton of respect after their postseason run last year.

But it’s important to remember that Dallas won this division by just one game over the Pelicans. And that the Mavs weren’t even the favorites to win the Southwest entering the 2023-24 campaign.

The Grizzlies won 51 or more games in back-to-back seasons, claiming the Southwest crown in 2021-22 and 2022-23. They were the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference before losing in the first round to the Los Angeles Lakers in 2023.

Last season got away from the Grizzlies in a hurry. Ja Morant only played in nine games, thanks to a suspension and health. Memphis lost many key players due to injury during a 27-win campaign last year.

I’m expecting a bounce-back season from the Grizzlies. They were fourth in defensive rating two seasons ago and could return to those heights, adding big man Zach Edey, NBA Rookie of the Year odds favorite, to the mix.

At the very least, this price doesn’t accurately reflect Memphis’ chances of contending with Dallas in the Southwest.

Southwest Division Team Previews & Predictions