Spurs vs Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 23

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 23, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Mavericks (31-29) are -14.5 favorites vs. the Spurs (14-45)
  • Total (Over/Under): 237.5 points
  • Thursday, February 23, 2023 at 8:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSSW & KENS

The San Antonio Spurs visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EST in Dallas.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-105).

The Spurs vs Mavericks Over/Under is 239.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Spurs are 24-35 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 21-36 against the spread.


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Spurs vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
San Antonio Spurs+14.5 -115O 239.5 -110+750
Dallas Mavericks -14.5 -105U 239.5 -110-1200

Mavericks vs Spurs Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Thursday‘s game with 77.3% confidence.

Mavericks vs Spurs Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Spurs and Mavericks, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 51 of their last 81 games (+17.19 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 45 of their last 77 games (+12.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 34 games (+12.00 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have covered the 3Q Spread in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.62 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.90 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 61 of their last 100 games (+18.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 55 games (+10.90 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games at home (+8.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 41 games at home (+6.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Spurs have gone 24-35 (-14.5 Units / -22.34% ROI).

  • 14-45 against the Moneyline (-13.45 Units / -22.55% ROI)
  • 33-24 against the Over for game total points (+6.6 Units / 10.17% ROI)
  • 24-33 against the Under for game total points (-12.3 Units / -18.95% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 21-36 (-18.55 Units / -28.13% ROI).

  • 31-29 against the Moneyline (-15.5 Units / -12.69% ROI)
  • 33-27 against the Over for game total points (+3.3 Units / 5% ROI)
  • 27-33 against the Under for game total points (-9.3 Units / -14.09% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 100 games (-31.56 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 51 games (-27.24 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 44 of their last 97 games (-23.85 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 96 games (-22.80 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the Spread in 22 of their last 65 games (-21.95 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 81 games (-27.91 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 59 games (-26.92 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 52 games (-25.15 Units / -48% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 79 games (-22.36 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only covered the 4Q Spread in 21 of their last 59 games (-20.54 Units / -32% ROI)

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San Antonio Spurs: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The San Antonio Spurs are 10-22 (.312) when they lose the turnover margin this season — third-worst among NBA teams. The Dallas Mavericks have averaged 11.9 turnovers per game (665 turnovers/56 games) this season — second-lowest among NBA teams.

The Spurs are winless (0-27) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .301

The San Antonio Spurs are 20-42 (.323) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — sixth-worst among NBA teams. The Dallas Mavericks have averaged 11.8 turnovers per game (1,625 turnovers/138 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — third-lowest among NBA teams.

The San Antonio Spurs are 6-33 (.154) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2021-22 season — second-worst among NBA teams. The Dallas Mavericks made 13.7 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2021-22 season — fifth-highest among NBA teams.

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the San Antonio Spurs

The Dallas Mavericks are 16-8 (.667) when they win the turnover margin this season — ninth-best among NBA teams. The San Antonio Spurs have averaged 15.0 turnovers per game (825 turnovers/55 games) this season — fourth-highest among NBA teams.

The Mavericks are 90-22 (.804) when scoring 110 or more points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .678

The Mavericks are 44-23 (.657) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .569

The Mavericks are 4-17 (.190) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .308

Injury Report: Mavericks vs. SpursThursday‘s Game, Feb. 23

  • Maxi Kleber (Mavericks): Kleber is making progress and the hope is that he’s able to return after the All-Star break, according to CBS Sports.
  • Davis Bertans (Mavericks): Bertans is out for Thursday’s (Feb.23) game against San Antonio.
  • Devin Vassell (Spurs): Vassell is making progress, and the hope is that he’s able to return in late February or early March, according to Noah Magaro-George of airalamo.com.
  • Jeremy Sochan (Spurs): Sochan is questionable for Thursday’s (Feb.23) game against Dallas.
  • Isaiah Roby (Spurs): Roby is out for Thursday’s (Feb.23) game against Dallas.
  • Romeo Langford (Spurs): Langford has not played since Jan. 23 and no timetable has been announced for his return.
  • Khem Birch (Spurs): The Spurs don’t expect Birch to play until after the All-Star break, according to Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News.
  • Tre Jones (Spurs): Jones is doubtful for Thursday’s (Feb.23) game against Dallas.

San Antonio Spurs Offensive Stats & Trends

The Spurs have averaged 54.4 points in the paint per game (7,456 points/137 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.4

The Spurs have 21.1 free throw attempts per game this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.7

The Spurs have averaged 1.23 points per shot (6,178 points/5,026 shots) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.30

The Spurs have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.0 (2,556 assists/ 1,294 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 39.4 points in the paint per game (1,104 points/28 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.6

The Mavericks have averaged 11.9 turnovers per game (665 turnovers/56 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.7

The Mavericks have averaged 42.2 points in the paint per game (2,364 points/56 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.1

The Mavericks have averaged 20.5 points in the paint per game (1,148 points/56 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.2

San Antonio Spurs Defensive Stats & Trends

The Spurs have averaged 32.9 defensive rebounds per game (4,512 rebounds/137 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.7

The Spurs have averaged 30.9 defensive rebounds per game (1,697 rebounds/55 games) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.0

The Spurs have averaged 7.8 steals per game (515 steals/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Spurs have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (215 blocks/55 games) this season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 30.9 defensive rebounds per game (1,729 rebounds/56 games) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.0

The Mavericks have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (852 blocks/210 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Mavericks have averaged 6.5 steals per game (1,371 steals/210 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Mavericks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (921 steals/138 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.