- Get NBA picks and analysis for Spurs vs. Mavericks.
- Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite to win Wednesday’s opener.
Stay up late to catch the nightcap of ESPN’s NBA doubleheader on Wednesday, as the Dallas Mavericks will host the San Antonio Spurs at 9:30 p.m. ET in American Airlines Arena.
The Mavs are ready to begin the Cooper Flagg era after taking him No. 1 overall in the 2025 NBA Draft. The Spurs selected Dylan Harper with the No. 2 pick to pair with Victor Wembanyama.
While the Mavericks and Spurs have promising young players, they’d like to contend in the Western Conference this year. Their season-opening battle could be a good test to see which team has the upper hand out of the gate.
Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite, but my Spurs vs. Mavericks prediction likes an under on a Cooper Flagg player prop.
Spurs vs. Mavericks Prediction: Wednesday, Oct. 22
- Cooper Flagg under 26.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-115)
I’m fading Flagg in his NBA debut, as my Spurs vs. Mavericks prediction suggests taking the under on his points, rebounds, and assists prop (26.5) for Wednesday’s opener.
This would be a difficult spot for any rookie. The Spurs have so much length in their lineup, led by a 7-foot-3 Wembanyama. I project San Antonio to be a much better defensive team this year after ranking 25th in defensive rating in 2024-25.
In addition to it being a tough matchup, Flagg is being asked to play out of position.
Because the Mavs have so much length of their own, Flagg started at point guard in the final preseason game. He could find himself at that spot in Game 1, as starting Klay Thompson and D’Angelo Russell in the same backcourt could lead to issues on the defensive end.
If that’s the case, the Spurs will likely apply pressure on him early in an attempt to force a turnover. I could also see it having a negative impact on his rebounding production, as he’s positioned further from the basket.
Put it all together, Flagg’s props feel a bit inflated for Game 1. He has the third-highest PRA line among all players in this game, trailing only Anthony Davis and Wembanyama. This comes after he averaged 11.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.7 assists during the preseason.
As long as Flagg’s PRA line is 25.5 or better, I project substantial value on the under.
Prediction: Cooper Flagg under 26.5 points, rebounds, and assists (Pick made Tuesday)
Spurs vs. Mavericks Odds for Wednesday
- Spurs spread: +2.5
- Mavericks spread: -2.5
- Total: 224.5
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