The rivalry that could define the NBA for the next several years will take center stage on a five-game Christmas Day schedule. The Oklahoma City Thunder will host the San Antonio Spurs at 2:30 p.m. ET on Thursday at Paycom Center on ABC/ESPN.
This is a rematch of the NBA Cup semifinal, when the Spurs pulled off a massive upset by defeating the Thunder 111-109 as 10-point underdogs. They also faced off in San Antonio on Tuesday, with the Spurs securing a 20-point win.
Despite those results, Oklahoma City is still laying -9.5 at home on Christmas Day.
Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction: Thursday, Dec. 25
- Spurs +10.5 (-110) – Prediction made Monday
Based on the initial NBA betting lines, I want to take the points with San Antonio for my Spurs vs. Thunder prediction on NBA Christmas Day.
I was on the Spurs and the under (225.5) when these two teams faced off in the NBA Cup semifinal. At the time, I thought San Antonio wasn’t getting enough credit as a contender in the Western Conference, particularly following Victor Wembanyama’s return from injury.
Wembanyama is still playing with a minutes restriction, but the Spurs are 5-1 since he returned to the floor. They went 9-3 during a 12-game stretch without him.
San Antonio’s ability to find success with and without Wembanyama has been impressive. The Spurs are an elite defensive team when he’s on the floor. They have a defensive rating of 106.2 with him on the floor, per Databallr, which would rank second in the league based on full-season numbers.
On the offensive side, the Spurs have been strong all year. They rank fifth in offensive rating and have a trio of guards capable of running the offense when Wembanyama is on the bench.
The defending champions are the best team in the league, but their 24-1 start was a tad inflated by the league’s easiest schedule. The Thunder have the most challenging remaining schedule, which has led to three losses in their past four outings.
These two teams clashed on Tuesday, as the Spurs secured a 20-point home win. The line for Christmas Day moved a point in San Antonio’s favor after that, but the outcome was never going to influence me either way.
Oklahoma City will be playing its third game in four nights when it faces San Antonio on Thursday, including a rematch from two nights earlier. That suggests some value in the road underdog with a bit more rest.
Prediction: Spurs +10.5 (-110)
Spurs vs. Thunder Odds for NBA Christmas Day
- Spurs spread: +9.5
- Thunder spread: -9.5
- Total: 235.5
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