Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction: Game 5 Western Conference Finals

With the NBA Western Conference final tied at 2-2, the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder will clash for a pivotal Game 5. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, airing on NBC and Peacock.

Oklahoma City enters as a 4.5-point NBA odds favorite at home. Here’s my Spurs vs. Thunder prediction for Game 5:

Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction: Game 5 on May 26

• Alex Caruso over 8.5 points

I believe Thunder guard Alex Caruso will have a bounce-back performance in Game 5. That’s why I’m taking the over on his scoring line (8.5) on Tuesday.

Caruso was a non-factor in Game 4, scoring zero points on one shot in 14 minutes. It was quite the adjustment by the Spurs, who let Caruso average 21 points through the first three matchups of the series. He scored as many as 31 points in Game 1.

Naturally, the market has adjusted Caruso’s props. His scoring line is now 8.5 after closing at 10.5 in Game 4. As a result, I think there is a bit of a discount on the talented guard.

Caruso isn’t a reliable offensive weapon by any means, but he typically takes his game to another level in the playoffs. He’s averaging 10.3 points per game this postseason, which is up from his regular-season average of 6.2 points.

During last year’s NBA championship run, Caruso averaged 9.5 points per game in the playoffs and cleared this line in 13 of his 21 matchups.

With Oklahoma City returning home in a crucial Game 5, I’ll back its important role player to come through.

Prediction: Alex Caruso over 8.5 points

Spurs vs. Thunder Odds for Game 5

• Spurs spread: +4.5
• Thunder spread: -4.5
• Total: 217.5