Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Dec. 25

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 25, 2022, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets (20-11) are -3.5 favorites vs. the Suns (19-14)
  • Total (Over/Under): 231.5 points
  • Sunday, December 25, 2022 at 10:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on ABC & ABC

The Phoenix Suns visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EST in Denver.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).

The Suns vs Nuggets Over/Under is 230.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Suns are 17-16 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 14-17 against the spread.


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Suns vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phoenix Suns+3.5 -105O 230.5 -110+145
Denver Nuggets -3.5 -115U 230.5 -110-175

Nuggets vs Suns Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Sunday‘s game with 61.6% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Suns and Nuggets, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Phoenix Suns have covered the 4Q Spread in 62 of their last 96 games (+25.32 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 64 of their last 96 games (+20.57 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have covered the 3Q Spread in 38 of their last 61 games (+12.34 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 29 games (+11.73 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games (+11.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 46 of their last 76 games (+12.25 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 47 of their last 83 games (+10.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 51 of their last 87 games (+10.50 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games (+9.96 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 47 of their last 83 games (+8.90 Units / 10% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Suns have gone 17-16 (-0.6 Units / -1.65% ROI).

  • 19-14 against the Moneyline (-13 Units / -14.21% ROI)
  • 15-17 against the Over for game total points (-3.7 Units / -10.19% ROI)
  • 17-15 against the Under for game total points (+0.5 Units / 1.38% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 14-17 (-4.7 Units / -13.78% ROI).

  • 20-11 against the Moneyline (+2.45 Units / 3.01% ROI)
  • 14-17 against the Over for game total points (-4.7 Units / -13.78% ROI)
  • 17-14 against the Under for game total points (+1.6 Units / 4.69% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 40 of their last 87 games (-30.86 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 82 games (-23.59 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 39 of their last 86 games (-20.17 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 games at home (-19.10 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 35 of their last 87 games (-19.10 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 52 games (-38.50 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 47 of their last 96 games (-28.95 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 57 games (-25.85 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only covered the 1H Spread in 19 of their last 59 games (-21.95 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 95 games (-17.41 Units / -16% ROI)

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Phoenix Suns: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Phoenix Suns are 45-2 (.957) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams. The Miami Heat have averaged 43.1 rebounds per game (4,056 rebounds/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — ninth-lowest among NBA teams.

The Suns are 47-5 (.904) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .547

The Suns are 26-6 (.812) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .539

The Suns are 33-9 (.786) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Phoenix Suns

The Nuggets are 51-19 (.729) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568

The Nuggets are 33-11 (.750) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Nuggets are 28-15 (.651) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Nuggets are 17-6 (.739) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. SunsSunday‘s Game, Dec. 25

  • Jamal Murray (Nuggets): The Nuggets have listed Murray as PROBABLE for Sunday’s game (Dec. 25) against the Suns.
  • Jeff Green (Nuggets): Green is dealing with fractured left hand and sprained finger and will be re-evaluated in a month, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.
  • Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): The Nuggets announced that Gillespie is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery to repair a lower left leg fracture.
  • Zeke Nnaji (Nuggets): The Nuggets have listed Nnaji as PROBABLE for Sunday’s game (Dec. 25) against the Suns.
  • Cameron Johnson (Suns): Johnson had surgery and should return in 1-2 months, according to Brian Windhorst of ESPN.
  • Devin Booker (Suns): Booker is questionable for Sunday’s (Dec. 25) game against Denver.
  • Cameron Payne (Suns): Payne is out for Sunday’s (Dec. 25) game against Denver.

Phoenix Suns Offensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.7 (162 assists/ 60 TOs) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Suns have averaged 5.0 turnovers per game (60 turnovers/12 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.2 (2,193 assists/ 981 TOs) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.2 (1,241 assists/ 577 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,136/4,216) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,791/7,476) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 44% from three (61/138) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets are shooting 42% from three (171/404) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

Phoenix Suns Defensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have averaged 30.2 defensive rebounds per game (363 rebounds/12 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.3

The Suns have averaged 8.5 steals per game (798 steals/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Suns have averaged 34.6 defensive rebounds per game (5,738 rebounds/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.1

The Suns have averaged 7.9 steals per game (1,315 steals/166 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (158 blocks/45 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (348 blocks/86 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (196 blocks/50 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (329 blocks/81 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.