Thunder vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 17

• The – are favorites vs. the –
• Total (Over/Under): Total points
• Watch the game on FSUN | FDOK | KWTV

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Miami, FL.

The – are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Thunder vs Heat Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Thunder are 21-21 against the spread, while the Heat are 22-18 against the spread.

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Thunder vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

Heat vs Thunder Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Saturday‘s game with 80.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Thunder and Heat.

Heat vs Thunder Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 70.0% confidence.

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Thunder Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+11.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 away games (+8.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 40 away games (+7.35 Units / 4% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+7.05 Units / 12% ROI)

Heat Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 28 of their last 40 games at home (+14.00 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+12.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games (+11.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+8.45 Units / 24% ROI)

Oklahoma City Thunder Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 21-21 (-2.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• 35-7 against the Moneyline (+5.9 Units / 1.96% ROI)
• 21-21 against the Over for game total points (-2.1 Units / -4.55% ROI)
• 21-21 against the Under for game total points (-2.1 Units / -4.55% ROI)

Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 22-18 (+2.2 Units / 4.88% ROI).

• 21-20 against the Moneyline (-2.45 Units / -3.65% ROI)
• 19-21 against the Over for game total points (-4.1 Units / -9.09% ROI)
• 21-19 against the Under for game total points (+0.1 Units / 0.22% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:

• The Miami Heat have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 17 of their last 45 games at home (-18.55 Units / -29% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only covered the 2H Spread in 13 of their last 40 games at home (-17.73 Units / -39% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 23 games (-15.35 Units / -50% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 45 games at home (-13.55 Units / -16% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 20 of their last 50 games (-13.55 Units / -23% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Thunder:

• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 away games (-19.50 Units / -14% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 18 of their last 50 games (-19.10 Units / -33% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 45 away games (-18.30 Units / -21% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 45 away games (-16.20 Units / -22% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 20 of their last 50 games (-14.95 Units / -26% ROI)

Jump to:

• Keys to Winning for the Oklahoma City Thunder
• Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
• Player Injuries for Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat
• Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive stats
• Miami Heat Offensive stats
• Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive stats
• Miami Heat Defensive stats

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (388 blocks/103 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (386 blocks/102 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (494 blocks/123 games) since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Heat are 6-10 (.375) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Heat are 48-7 (.873) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .813

The Heat were 2-6 (.250) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line in the 2023-24 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .414

The Heat were 9-34 (.209) when allowing 110 or more points last season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .340

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (388 blocks/103 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (386 blocks/102 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (494 blocks/123 games) since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat are 6-10 (.375) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Heat are 48-7 (.873) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .813

The Heat were 2-6 (.250) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line in the 2023-24 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .414

The Heat were 9-34 (.209) when allowing 110 or more points last season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .340

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (388 blocks/103 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (386 blocks/102 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (494 blocks/123 games) since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat are 6-10 (.375) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Heat are 48-7 (.873) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .813

The Heat were 2-6 (.250) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line in the 2023-24 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .414

The Heat were 9-34 (.209) when allowing 110 or more points last season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .340

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