Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 10

• The Nuggets are -11.5 favorites vs. the Thunder
• Total (Over/Under): 232.5 points
• Watch the game on FDOK | ALT

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00 pm in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-115).

The Thunder vs Nuggets Over/Under is 232.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Thunder are 39-41 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 42-38 against the spread.

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Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Friday‘s game with 73.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Thunder and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Thunder Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Thunder will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 66.3% confidence.

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Thunder Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 24 games (+20.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1H Moneyline in 21 of their last 25 away games (+15.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 24 away games (+14.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 1Q Spread in 22 of their last 30 away games (+12.75 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 21 of their last 30 away games (+10.48 Units / 30% ROI)

Nuggets Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+12.95 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games (+8.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.45 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 65% ROI)

Oklahoma City Thunder Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 39-41 (-6.1 Units / -6.93% ROI).

• 64-16 against the Moneyline (+3.95 Units / 0.71% ROI)
• 42-38 against the Over for game total points (+0.2 Units / 0.23% ROI)
• 38-42 against the Under for game total points (-8.2 Units / -9.32% ROI)

Denver Nuggets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 42-38 (+0.2 Units / 0.23% ROI).

• 52-28 against the Moneyline (+5.15 Units / 1.77% ROI)
• 50-30 against the Over for game total points (+17.03 Units / 19.36% ROI)
• 30-50 against the Under for game total points (-25 Units / -28.39% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Nuggets:

• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 20 of their last 45 games (-30.70 Units / -27% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 14 of their last 35 games at home (-16.81 Units / -24% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 35 games at home (-14.70 Units / -25% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 35 games at home (-14.65 Units / -23% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 2H Spread in 15 of their last 40 games at home (-13.56 Units / -29% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Thunder:

• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 50 games (-30.35 Units / -26% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 50 away games (-23.65 Units / -28% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only covered the 2Q Spread in 19 of their last 50 away games (-15.60 Units / -27% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 45 games (-15.15 Units / -16% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 30 away games (-15.01 Units / -44% ROI)

Jump to:

• Keys to Winning for the Oklahoma City Thunder
• Keys to Winning for the Denver Nuggets
• Player Injuries for Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
• Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive stats
• Denver Nuggets Offensive stats
• Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive stats
• Denver Nuggets Defensive stats

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Thunder are 28-7 (.800) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .443

The Thunder are 98-14 (.875) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .599

The Thunder are 169-49 (.775) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .507

The Thunder are 139-45 (.755) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .493

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Nuggets are undefeated (5-0) when their opponents turns the ball over 20 or more times since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .636

The Nuggets are 12-6 (.667) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .604

The Nuggets are 37-7 (.841) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .619

The Nuggets are 112-39 (.742) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th-best in the NBA. The Thunder have averaged 51.2 rebounds/game since the start of the 2023-24 season — T-8th-lowest in the NBA.

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 12.2 turnovers per game (1,969 turnovers/162 games) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.4

The Thunder have averaged 12.0 turnovers per game (1,492 turnovers/124 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

The Thunder have averaged 6.3 turnovers per game (506 turnovers/80 games) in the second half this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Thunder have averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (969 turnovers/162 games) in the second half since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.2

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (1,128 assists/ 495 TOs) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Nuggets have averaged 1.39 points per shot (9,755 points/7,003 shots) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.30

The Nuggets are shooting 40% from three (1,129/2,861) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets are shooting 40% from three (550/1,363) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have allowed opponents to shoot 44% (9,504/21,505) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 47%

The Thunder have averaged 9.8 steals per game (1,214 steals/124 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Thunder have averaged 9.5 steals per game (2,317 steals/244 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Thunder have averaged 10.7 steals per game (891 steals/83 games) at home since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.2

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 6.8 steals per game (546 steals/80 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4

The Nuggets have forced 11.7 turnovers per game (467 turnovers/40 games) at home this season — lowest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.6

The Nuggets have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (314 blocks/80 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have averaged 37.0 defensive rebounds per game (5,990 rebounds/162 games) since the start of the 2024-25 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

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