Thunder vs Pelicans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 11, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Pelicans (32-34) are -2.5 favorites vs. the Thunder (31-35)
  • Total (Over/Under): 232.5 points
  • Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 8:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSNO & BSOK

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit Smoothie King Center to take on the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EST in New Orleans.

The Pelicans are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Thunder vs Pelicans Over/Under is 233.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Thunder are 40-25 against the spread, while the Pelicans are 30-35 against the spread.


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Thunder vs. Pelicans Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Oklahoma City Thunder+2.5 -115O 233.5 -110+110
New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 -105U 233.5 -110-130

Pelicans vs Thunder Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Pelicans will win Saturday‘s game with 55.7% confidence.

Pelicans vs Thunder Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pelicans will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.4% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Thunder and Pelicans, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 2H Moneyline in 48 of their last 80 games (+30.96 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 71 games (+20.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Over in 53 of their last 82 games (+19.00 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 49 of their last 80 games (+16.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 82 games (+13.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 58 games (+22.09 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 22 of their last 26 games (+17.66 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 24 games (+12.95 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games (+12.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+11.60 Units / 41% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 40-25 (+12.6 Units / 17.37% ROI).

  • 31-35 against the Moneyline (+14.65 Units / 17.59% ROI)
  • 39-26 against the Over for game total points (+10.4 Units / 14.33% ROI)
  • 26-39 against the Under for game total points (-16.9 Units / -23.28% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pelicans have gone 30-35 (-8.5 Units / -11.72% ROI).

  • 32-34 against the Moneyline (-10.05 Units / -9.31% ROI)
  • 33-33 against the Over for game total points (-3.3 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 33-33 against the Under for game total points (-3.3 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 18 of their last 60 games (-29.98 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 22 of their last 57 games (-21.82 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 35 of their last 87 games (-21.25 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 85 games (-20.80 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 57 games (-19.11 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 82 games (-31.75 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 23 of their last 69 games (-24.72 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 82 games (-23.10 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 82 games (-21.90 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 34 of their last 82 games (-18.65 Units / -21% ROI)

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Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Pelicans

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 19-68 (.218) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — seventh-worst among NBA teams. The Utah Jazz have averaged 45.8 rebounds per game (6,454 rebounds/141 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — fourth-highest among NBA teams.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 8-43 (.157) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2021-22 season — fourth-worst among NBA teams. The Utah Jazz made 14.4 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2021-22 season — second-highest among NBA teams.

The Thunder are 26-45 (.366) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .542

The Thunder are 24-41 (.369) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

New Orleans Pelicans: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The New Orleans Pelicans are 7-30 (.189) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2021-22 season — sixth-worst among NBA teams. The Golden State Warriors made 15.3 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2021-22 season — highest among NBA teams.

The New Orleans Pelicans are 4-19 (.174) when losing the rebounding margin this season — fourth-worst among NBA teams. The Golden State Warriors have averaged 44.6 rebounds per game (2,676 rebounds/60 games) this season — ninth-highest among NBA teams.

The New Orleans Pelicans are 10-40 (.200) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for fifth-worst among NBA teams. The Golden State Warriors have averaged 45.1 rebounds per game (6,406 rebounds/142 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — sixth-highest among NBA teams.

The Pelicans are 7-30 (.189) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .307

Injury Report: Pelicans vs. ThunderSaturday‘s Game, Mar. 11

  • E.J. Liddell (Pelicans): Liddell is doing some light shooting and is making progress from a torn right ACL, according to Cody Taylor of The USA Today. He’s expected to miss most of the season.
  • Brandon Ingram (Pelicans): Ingram is listed as Questionable for Saturday’s game (Mar.11) against Oklahoma City.
  • Larry Nance Jr. (Pelicans): Nance Jr. will be re-evaluated in two weeks, according to Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated.
  • Zion Williamson (Pelicans): The Pelicans announced that Williamson will miss at least two more weeks.
  • Jose Alvarado (Pelicans): Alvarado will be re-evaluated in three weeks after being diagnosed with a stress reaction in his right tibia, per Rotowire.
  • Jalen Williams (Thunder): Williams did not play in Wednesday’s (Mar. 8) game against Phoenix.
  • Chet Holmgren (Thunder): Holmgren is moving around is shooting again, according to Quenton Albertie of Clutch Points. He’s not expected to play this season as he recovers from a Lisfranc injury.
  • Aleksej Pokusevski (Thunder): Pokusevski is starting to shoot again, according to Andrew Schlecht of The Athletic. No timetable has been announced for his return to action.
  • Kenrich Williams (Thunder): The Thunder announced that Williams suffered a ligament rupture in his left wrist.

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 1.18 points per shot (11,288 points/9,537 shots) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.26

The Thunder have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (2,353 assists/ 1,467 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Thunder have averaged 1.20 points per shot (22,998 points/19,141 shots) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.27

The Thunder are shooting 43% (4,145/9,537) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

New Orleans Pelicans Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans have averaged 14.9 fast break points per game (895 points/60 games) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

The Pelicans have a 28% free throw rate (2,688 free throw attempts/9,484 field goal attempts) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25%

The Pelicans have averaged 14.8 second chance points per game (887 points/60 games) this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.7

The Pelicans have averaged 25.4 points in the paint per game (5,436 points/214 games) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.2

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 32.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,912 rebounds/59 games) this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.1

The Thunder have averaged 34.6 defensive rebounds per game (7,367 rebounds/213 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.9

The Thunder have 1,109 steals since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th most among NBA teams

The Thunder have averaged 4.3 blocks per game (459 blocks/106 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

New Orleans Pelicans Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (886 blocks/214 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Pelicans have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (430 blocks/107 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Pelicans have averaged 8.6 steals per game (513 steals/60 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Pelicans have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/60 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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