Thunder vs Warriors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Nov. 27

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 28, 2024, 12:00 AM
  • The Thunder are -2.5 favorites vs. the Warriors
  • Total (Over/Under): 229.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN | NSBA

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EST in San Francisco, CA.

The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Thunder vs Warriors Over/Under is 224.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Thunder are 10-7 against the spread, while the Warriors are 10-7 against the spread.


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Thunder vs. Warriors Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Oklahoma City Thunder-4.5 -110O 224.5 -105-190
Golden State Warriors +4.5 -110U 224.5 -115+155

Warriors vs Thunder Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Wednesday‘s game with 72.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Thunder and Warriors.

Warriors vs Thunder Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Thunder will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 52.3% confidence.


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  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 4Q Spread in 50 of their last 87 games (+12.77 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 92 games (+11.50 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 3Q Spread in 52 of their last 92 games (+8.18 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 69 games (+8.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.90 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the 3Q Spread in 40 of their last 68 games (+12.18 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the Spread in 47 of their last 83 games (+8.50 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.55 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 57 games (+6.60 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 28% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 10-7 (+2.3 Units / 12.3% ROI).

  • 13-4 against the Moneyline (+0.1 Units / 0.13% ROI)
  • 8-9 against the Over for game total points (-1.9 Units / -10.16% ROI)
  • 9-8 against the Under for game total points (+0.2 Units / 1.07% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 10-7 (+2.3 Units / 12.3% ROI).

  • 12-5 against the Moneyline (-1.85 Units / -4.06% ROI)
  • 10-7 against the Over for game total points (+2.3 Units / 12.3% ROI)
  • 7-10 against the Under for game total points (-4 Units / -21.39% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 33 games at home (-24.90 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 2Q Spread in 28 of their last 70 games (-17.00 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 82 games (-16.07 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 4Q Spread in 37 of their last 83 games (-15.90 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 83 games (-14.93 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 69 games (-17.68 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 85 games (-17.55 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 87 games (-16.35 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 85 games (-16.00 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only covered the 1Q Spread in 34 of their last 79 games (-14.40 Units / -16% ROI)

Jump to:

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Thunder were 23-5 (.821) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .604

The Thunder are 10-2 (.833) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

The Thunder were 24-3 (.889) when winning the rebounding margin last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

The Thunder were 41-14 (.745) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Warriors are 35-4 (.897) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .685

The Warriors are 12-3 (.800) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .505

The Warriors are 8-3 (.727) when winning the rebounding margin this season — T-7th-best in the NBA. The Thunder have averaged 50.5 rebounds/game this season — 8th-lowest in the NBA.

The Warriors are 26-2 (.929) when shooting 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .782

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder shot 41% from three (558/1,378) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder have an assist to turnover ratio of 3.6 (40 assists/ 11 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Thunder have a 21% free throw rate (310 free throw attempts/1,482 field goal attempts) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25%

The Thunder shot 39% from three (1,090/2,805) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors are shooting 70% from the free throw line (251/360) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Warriors have made 15.5 three-pointers per game on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.5

The Warriors have made 15.9 three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.0

The Warriors have a TS% of 43% in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49%

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 12.4 steals per game (199 steals/16 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.2

The Thunder have forced 20.0 turnovers per game (320 turnovers/16 games) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.8

The Thunder have 199 steals this season — most among NBA teams

The Thunder have averaged 9.1 steals per game (893 steals/98 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have allowed opponents to shoot 31% from three (193/624) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Warriors have averaged 38.8 defensive rebounds per game (620 rebounds/16 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.4

The Warriors have allowed opponents to shoot 28% from three (60/211) at home this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 35%

The Warriors have averaged 5.5 blocks per game (88 blocks/16 games) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.