Timberwolves vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 7

  • The are favorites vs. the
  • Total (Over/Under): Total points
  • Watch the game on FDSN | SUN

The Minnesota Timberwolves visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Miami, FL, FL, USA.

The are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Timberwolves vs Heat Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Timberwolves are 29-33 against the spread, while the Heat are 28-32 against the spread.


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Timberwolves vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Minnesota Timberwolves O
Miami Heat U

Heat vs Timberwolves Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Timberwolves will win Friday‘s game with 75.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Timberwolves and Heat.

Heat vs Timberwolves Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Timberwolves will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 59.1% confidence.


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  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 3Q Spread in 61 of their last 99 games (+16.83 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 35 games (+15.85 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 4Q Spread in 55 of their last 97 games (+14.72 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 28 games (+12.85 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 46 away games (+11.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games (+12.65 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 53 games (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 50 of their last 89 games (+12.05 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 51 of their last 88 games (+11.77 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 19 of their last 28 games (+9.70 Units / 30% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Timberwolves have gone 29-33 (-7.35 Units / -10.43% ROI).

  • 35-29 against the Moneyline (-16.4 Units / -10.16% ROI)
  • 35-29 against the Over for game total points (+3.1 Units / 4.4% ROI)
  • 29-35 against the Under for game total points (-9.5 Units / -13.49% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 28-32 (-7.2 Units / -10.72% ROI).

  • 29-32 against the Moneyline (-8.1 Units / -7.86% ROI)
  • 33-28 against the Over for game total points (+2.2 Units / 3.28% ROI)
  • 28-33 against the Under for game total points (-8.3 Units / -12.37% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 53 games (-19.88 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 82 games (-16.70 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 82 games (-15.45 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 57 games (-14.30 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 40 games (-13.72 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 45 of their last 99 games (-33.35 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only covered the 1Q Spread in 38 of their last 99 games (-28.05 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 46 of their last 99 games (-24.80 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 74 games (-24.45 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 88 games (-19.10 Units / -20% ROI)

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Minnesota Timberwolves: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Timberwolves are 4-15 (.211) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers this season — 8th-worst in the NBA. The Heat have made 13.9 three-pointers per game this season — 10th-highest in the NBA.

The Timberwolves were 24-2 (.923) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

The Timberwolves were 13-2 (.867) when forcing 10 or more steals last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .572

The Timberwolves are 3-9 (.250) when their opponents turns the ball fewer than 10 times since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .426

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves

The Heat are 6-18 (.250) when forcing fewer than 5 steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .386

The Heat are 18-3 (.857) when winning the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .753

The Heat are 12-5 (.706) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .552

The Heat are 29-23 (.558) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .448

Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves are shooting 38% from three (1,998/5,233) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Timberwolves shot 43% (368/853) in close and late situations last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Timberwolves averaged 12.0 fast break points per game (492 points/41 games) at home last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.8

The Timberwolves have averaged 20.8 points in the paint per game (1,328 points/64 games) in the first half this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.6

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat shot 43% (413/964) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Heat have averaged 53.2 points per game (7,603 points/143 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5

The Heat have averaged 11.8 second chance points per game (719 points/61 games) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

The Heat averaged 11.5 second chance points per game (943 points/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8

Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves allowed an eFG% of 50% at home last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 54%

The Timberwolves allowed a TS% of 49% last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 52%

The Timberwolves have averaged 5.5 blocks per game (806 blocks/146 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Timberwolves averaged 36.2 defensive rebounds per game (2,971 rebounds/82 games) last season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (234 blocks/68 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (510 blocks/143 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (230 blocks/61 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1


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