Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 27

• The Nuggets are -11.5 favorites vs. the Timberwolves
• Total (Over/Under): 222.5 points
• Watch the game on NBC | PEAC

The Minnesota Timberwolves visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:30 pm in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-110).

The Timberwolves vs Nuggets Over/Under is 222.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Timberwolves are 40-46 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 45-41 against the spread.

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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Monday‘s game with 80.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Timberwolves and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Timberwolves will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 70.0% confidence.

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Timberwolves Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+10.60 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 1H Spread in 20 of their last 30 away games (+9.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 away games (+9.15 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 away games (+8.28 Units / 16% ROI)

Nuggets Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+10.55 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 games (+10.30 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.55 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+7.15 Units / 8% ROI)

Minnesota Timberwolves Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Timberwolves have gone 40-46 (-10.65 Units / -11.26% ROI).

• 52-34 against the Moneyline (-9.55 Units / -3.97% ROI)
• 39-47 against the Over for game total points (-12.7 Units / -13.42% ROI)
• 47-39 against the Under for game total points (+4.1 Units / 4.33% ROI)

Denver Nuggets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 45-41 (-0.2 Units / -0.21% ROI).

• 55-31 against the Moneyline (+5.4 Units / 1.8% ROI)
• 53-33 against the Over for game total points (+16.73 Units / 17.69% ROI)
• 33-53 against the Under for game total points (-25.3 Units / -26.73% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Nuggets:

• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 21 of their last 45 games (-27.95 Units / -24% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 35 games (-15.60 Units / -38% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 18 of their last 40 games at home (-14.91 Units / -19% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 40 games (-14.60 Units / -33% ROI)
• The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games at home (-13.30 Units / -16% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Timberwolves:

• The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 18 of their last 45 games (-18.00 Units / -25% ROI)
• The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 50 games (-17.50 Units / -24% ROI)
• The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 45 away games (-14.90 Units / -29% ROI)
• The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 45 games (-14.15 Units / -27% ROI)
• The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 24 away games (-12.50 Units / -45% ROI)

Jump to:

• Keys to Winning for the Minnesota Timberwolves
• Keys to Winning for the Denver Nuggets
• Player Injuries for Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
• Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive stats
• Denver Nuggets Offensive stats
• Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive stats
• Denver Nuggets Defensive stats

Minnesota Timberwolves: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Timberwolves are 27-11 (.711) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .573

The Timberwolves are 28-13 (.683) when they win the turnover margin this season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .592

The Timberwolves are 74-25 (.747) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .696

The Timberwolves are 28-21 (.571) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves

The Nuggets are 38-7 (.844) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .618

The Nuggets are 103-31 (.769) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .575

The Nuggets are 8-3 (.727) when forcing 10 or more steals this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .604

The Nuggets are 31-15 (.674) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .573

Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves are shooting 75% from the free throw line (1,558/2,072) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Timberwolves have averaged 14.3 second chance points per game (1,172 points/82 games) this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.0

The Timberwolves are shooting 48% (3,495/7,260) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Timberwolves have an eFG% of 58% on the road this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 41% from three (565/1,393) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets are shooting 40% from three (1,161/2,934) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (1,155 assists/ 512 TOs) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Nuggets have averaged 1.41 points per shot (5,057 points/3,585 shots) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves have averaged 35.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,900 rebounds/82 games) this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.8

The Timberwolves have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (738 blocks/123 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Timberwolves have blocked 1,378 shots since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th most among NBA teams

The Timberwolves have allowed a TS% of 49% in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 51%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 6.8 steals per game (560 steals/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (326 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have averaged 37.1 defensive rebounds per game (3,039 rebounds/82 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.8

The Nuggets have averaged 7.3 steals per game (892 steals/123 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

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