The final game of the NBA’s five-game slate on Christmas Day is a matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets. Tipoff is 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday at Ball Arena on ABC/ESPN.
This matchup has developed into a nice rivalry since the Wolves upset the Nuggets in the 2024 Western Conference semifinals. Minnesota had the upper hand for a couple of years, but Denver leads the season series 2-0 thus far.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction: Thursday, Dec. 25
- Nuggets -3.5 (-110) – Prediction made Wednesday
Based on the updated NBA betting lines, I’m laying the points with Denver for my favorite Timberwolves vs. Nuggets prediction on NBA Christmas Day.
This line has dropped from 4.5 to 3.5 after Cameron Johnson was injured on Tuesday, which feels like an overcorrection. According to Databallr, the Nuggets have a net rating of +9.1 when Johnson is off the floor, with their defensive rating actually being 3.5 points better. This feels like a good spot to believe in Denver.
After losing six straight head-to-head meetings against the Timberwolves, the Nuggets have bounced back and won both meetings this year. Both wins came on the road and were by a combined total of 22 points.
One explanation for Denver’s impressive performance against Minnesota this year is that the team finally has depth around Nikola Jokić. The Nuggets have seven different players averaging double figures this year, including Jamal Murray’s 24.8 points per contest.
All of a sudden, the Nuggets can survive the minutes where Jokić is on the bench. According to Databallr, they have a +6.4 net rating when he’s off the floor. For comparison, that mark was -10.2 last year. They haven’t had a positive net rating in the non-Jokic minutes since the 2020-21 campaign.
In addition, Minnesota isn’t the same team it was after consecutive trips to the Western Conference finals. The Timberwolves desperately need a point guard after Mike Conley lost his starting role. They also lost some depth after Nickeil Alexander-Walker left in free agency.
In my opinion, the Wolves’ deficiencies are amplified when they face the top teams in the league. They are 5-8 against teams above .500 this year, making them the only top-six team in the West with a losing record against winning teams.
As one of the top teams in the league, Denver should be able to take care of business in this Christmas Day showdown.
Prediction: Nuggets -3.5 (-110)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds for NBA Christmas Day
- Timberwolves spread: +3.5
- Nuggets spread: -3.5
- Total: 239.5
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