Portland Trail Blazers vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Jan. 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 17, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets (30-13) are -6.5 favorites vs. the Trail Blazers (21-22)
  • Total (Over/Under): 237.5 points
  • Tuesday, January 17, 2023 at 9:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on ALT & ROOT Sports NW+

The Portland Trail Blazers visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EST in Denver.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-115).

The Trail Blazers vs Nuggets Over/Under is 236.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Trail Blazers are 24-19 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 22-20 against the spread.


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Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Portland Trail Blazers+5.5 -105O 236.5 -115+180
Denver Nuggets -5.5 -115U 236.5 -115-225

Nuggets vs Trail Blazers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Tuesday‘s game with 66.6% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Trail Blazers and Nuggets, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Portland Trail Blazers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 32 of their last 68 games (+18.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 64 games (+14.73 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 49 of their last 82 games (+11.87 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 28 away games (+11.20 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have covered the 1Q Spread in 29 of their last 48 away games (+9.40 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 55 of their last 88 games (+17.80 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 16 games at home (+13.70 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 39 games (+13.57 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 50 of their last 83 games (+12.55 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 48 of their last 83 games (+10.95 Units / 12% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Trail Blazers have gone 24-19 (+3.1 Units / 6.55% ROI).

  • 21-22 against the Moneyline (+3.9 Units / 5.97% ROI)
  • 20-22 against the Over for game total points (-4.2 Units / -8.88% ROI)
  • 22-20 against the Under for game total points (+0 Units / 0% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 22-20 (+0 Units / 0% ROI).

  • 30-13 against the Moneyline (+10.85 Units / 9.14% ROI)
  • 21-22 against the Over for game total points (-3.2 Units / -6.77% ROI)
  • 22-21 against the Under for game total points (-1.1 Units / -2.33% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 88 games (-30.53 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 38 of their last 80 games (-28.13 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 66 games (-21.07 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 80 games (-19.45 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 88 games (-19.40 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 25 of their last 83 games (-32.21 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 83 games (-25.16 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 30 of their last 83 games (-24.22 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 29 of their last 80 games (-22.86 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Portland Trail Blazers have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 82 games (-22.72 Units / -24% ROI)

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Portland Trail Blazers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Portland Trail Blazers are 6-37 (.140) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — worst among NBA teams. The San Antonio Spurs have averaged 44.9 rebounds per game (4,314 rebounds/96 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — eighth-highest among NBA teams.

The Trail Blazers are 8-34 (.190) when their opponent attempts 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .447

The Trail Blazers are 4-15 (.211) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .479

The Trail Blazers are 13-22 (.371) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Portland Trail Blazers

The Nuggets are 51-19 (.729) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568

The Nuggets are 33-11 (.750) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Nuggets are 28-15 (.651) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Nuggets are 17-6 (.739) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. Trail BlazersTuesday‘s Game, Jan. 17

  • Jamal Murray (Nuggets): Murray is probable for Tuesday’s (Jan. 17) game against Portland.
  • Peyton Watson (Nuggets): Watson will be sidelined for a couple weeks, according to Harrison Wind of TheDNVR.com.
  • Vlatko Cancar (Nuggets): Cancar is questionable for Tuesday’s (Jan. 17) game against Portland.
  • Jeff Green (Nuggets): Green is dealing with fractured left hand and sprained finger and will be re-evaluated in a month, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.
  • Bones Hyland (Nuggets): Hyland is questionable for Tuesday’s (Jan. 17) game against Portland.
  • Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): The Nuggets announced that Gillespie is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery to repair a lower left leg fracture.
  • Justise Winslow (Trail Blazers): The Blazers announced that Winslow will be re-evaluated in two weeks.
  • Gary Payton II (Trail Blazers): Payton II is probable for Tuesday’s (Jan. 17) game against Denver.

Portland Trail Blazers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Trail Blazers have averaged 20.2 points in the paint per game (3,376 points/167 games) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 22.9

The Trail Blazers have averaged 1.39 points per shot (714 points/515 shots) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

The Trail Blazers averaged 115.9 points per game (8,345 points/72 games) in the 2020-21 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 111.8

The Trail Blazers have averaged 42.0 points in the paint per game (7,016 points/167 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47.4

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,136/4,216) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,791/7,476) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 44% from three (61/138) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets are shooting 42% from three (171/404) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

Portland Trail Blazers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Trail Blazers have averaged 33.1 defensive rebounds per game (5,534 rebounds/167 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.1

The Trail Blazers have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (196 blocks/49 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Trail Blazers have averaged 6.8 steals per game (88 steals/13 games) this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Trail Blazers have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (51 blocks/13 games) this season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (158 blocks/45 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (348 blocks/86 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (196 blocks/50 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (329 blocks/81 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.