The NBA Coach of the Year formula is simple: Find the team that outperforms its preseason win total by double digits and locks up a top seed.
That’s the signal bettors should chase in the NBA odds market — coaches whose teams blow past modest expectations and climb into the conference’s top tier carry the most value.
3 Betting Trends for Picking an NBA Coach of the Year Winner
Clear Win Total by Solid Margin
Since the 2010-11 season, the average NBA Coach of the Year winner has come from a team that cleared its preseason win total by 12.3 games. That mark rises to 12.5 when excluding the three shortened campaigns over that span.
Of the last 16 NBA Coach of the Year winners, only three had a preseason win total above 49.5. The average preseason over/under since 2010-11 has been 45.2.
Targeting a coach of a team with a win total in the mid-40s offers the best path to clearing expectations by enough to garner consideration for this award.
For example, Joe Mazzulla’s Boston Celtics won 56 games to clear a preseason win total of 41.5 last season.
Improve on Previous Season’s Finish
Mazzulla is the second NBA Coach of the Year winner in the past 16 years to claim the trophy despite his team failing to improve from its previous season. His Celtics won five fewer games in 2025-26 than in 2024-25.
However, context is important. The Celtics were without Jayson Tatum for much of the year. The only other time an NBA Coach of the Year winner didn’t improve its previous season’s record was during a shortened campaign.
Since 2010-11, the average NBA Coach of the Year winner has posted a 10.8-win increase from the previous season. That clip jumps to 13 when removing the shortened seasons.
Claim a Top Seed in Final Conference Standings
An underrated part of winning the NBA Coach of the Year award is guiding a team to one of the best records in the conference. Voters generally reward excellence in this market.
Since 2010-11, the last 16 NBA Coach of the Year winners have had an average seed finish of 1.7. That number drops to 1.5 when counting only full campaigns. Of the last 16 winners, 10 have been on a team that finished as the No. 1 seed in their respective conference.
Mazzulla led the Celtics to the No. 2 seed, which was enough for him to win the Coach of the Year award.
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