It can be difficult for voters to quantify a player’s defensive impact, which is why there’s been a consistent formula for picking the NBA Defensive Player of the Year. Target rim protectors on elite defensive teams.
Before diving into the latest NBA odds, check out my three betting trends for picking the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year:
3 Trends for Picking NBA Defensive Player of the Year
Team Defensive Rating Must Rank High
A team’s defensive rating can greatly affect whether a player is capable of winning this award. It’s one of the first things voters look at, since they typically want to reward one of the league’s best defensive teams.
Of the 19 Defensive Player of the Year winners since the 2007-08 season, 15 came from a team that ranked first or second in defensive rating. The average defensive rating rank over that span is 2.5.
Victor Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs ranked third in defensive rating last season. Evan Mobley’s Cleveland Cavaliers ranked eighth in 2024-25, the lowest ranking for a DPOY winner since 2007.
Team Should Win 50-Plus Games
Elite defense strongly correlates with racking up regular-season wins. Each of the past eight Defensive Player of the Year winners has come from a team that won 50-plus games.
Since the 2007-08 season, the DPOY’s team has averaged 55.5 wins. Only three award winners over that span were on teams that failed to reach 50 wins. Of those three players, two were on 48-win teams, and one occurred during a shortened season.
With only five teams having a preseason over/under of 50 or higher in the NBA win totals market, this could be an easy way to narrow the list of potential candidates.
Rim Protectors Have Advantage
Throughout the history of the Defensive Player of the Year award, only six guards and a pair of wings have claimed this trophy. Marcus Smart is the only non-center to win Defensive Player of the Year in the past decade.
Big men have an advantage, especially because they can protect the rim. Swatting shots is an easy way to become a DPOY candidate. Across the past 10 seasons, the Defensive Player of the Year has averaged 1.98 blocks per game.
Wembanyama averaged 3.1 blocks per game last year. It marked the highest average by a DPOY winner since Marcus Camby swatted 3.3 shots per contest in 2006-07.
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