The NBA MVP debate has been extremely hot in recent seasons, especially when all-time greats are competing for the same trophy in the middle of their prime.
Rather than get lost in the debates, I prefer to take advantage of a fluid NBA odds market. That’s why I’ve put together a list of historical trends to consider when picking an NBA MVP winner.
3 Trends for Picking an NBA MVP Winner
Team Success is Important
One of the best ways to identify an MVP candidate is by looking at the top of the standings. MVP winners typically come from one of the league’s best teams.
Since 2000, only four of the past 27 MVP winners came from a team that finished outside the top two of their respective conference. That stretch includes two MVP winners on teams that claimed the No. 3 seed. The average seed finish over that span is 1.7.
In terms of wins, an MVP’s team has averaged 59.4 wins since 2000. Only two MVP winners this century have been on a team that failed to record 50 wins across a full season.
Targeting the 50-win teams is a good place to start when picking an NBA MVP winner.
Age Remains Underrated Angle
Before placing a wager in the NBA MVP market, consider a potential candidate’s age. MVP winners are typically in the middle of their prime.
Since 2000, the average age of the previous 27 MVP winners has been 26.5. Steve Nash is the only player this century to win an MVP trophy in his 30s, doing so twice at 30 and 31 in 2005 and 2006.
On the other end of the age spectrum, Derrick Rose is the youngest MVP winner in NBA history. He claimed the trophy in his third season at 22 in 2011. Since 2000, only three players have won an MVP award before turning 25, including Rose.
San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama, who turns 23 in January, enters the 2026-27 season as the betting favorite to win MVP.
Counting Stats Must Be Prolific
Team success matters, but it’s not enough to be the best player on the best team. MVP winners these days post ridiculous stat lines nightly.
Of the previous 11 MVP winners, seven of them have averaged at least 29.5 points per game. The average over that span is 29.6 points per game. During that same stretch, the MVP winner has averaged 9.5 rebounds and 7.2 assists per contest.
In the current era of the NBA, with more offense, an MVP candidate needs to pile up the necessary counting stats.
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