The NBA Rookie of the Year race could be as entertaining as ever during the 2026-27 season.
With a star-studded rookie class, many names are worth monitoring in this year’s NBA odds market. To help narrow down the list, here are a few betting trends for picking the NBA Rookie of the Year:
3 Trends for Picking NBA Rookie of the Year Winner
Target the Top of Draft Class
The simplest way to narrow down Rookie of the Year candidates is to look at the top of the draft class. History suggests the Rookie of the Year winner will likely be one of the top four picks.
Since the 2003-04 season, when LeBron James won Rookie of the Year, 23 total award winners have been named. Of those 23 winners, 19 were selected in the top four of their respective draft class. That includes 10 No. 1 overall picks over that span.
The average draft position of the last 23 winners has been 4.2. Only two winners since 2004 have even come from outside the top six.
Basically, the 2027 NBA Rookie of the Year race figures to be between AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, and Caleb Wilson.
Counting Stats Matter
Another simple way to predict the NBA Rookie of the Year is to back the player with the top counting stats. Voters tend to reward the rookie with the best statistical output.
Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg averaged 21 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists to win the ROY trophy last season. He became the third Rookie of the Year winner in the past four seasons to average at least 20 points per game.
Flagg’s PRA line (points + rebounds + assists) totaled 32.2. Three of the past four Rookie of the Year winners have averaged at least 30 PRA. The average PRA line is 28.9 dating back to the 2003-04 season, highlighting the importance of counting stats.
Don’t Worry About Team Success
As the 2026 Rookie of the Year race showed, team success isn’t an important factor for voters. The Charlotte Hornets’ play-in tournament run didn’t give Kon Knueppel an edge over Flagg’s overall case on a lottery team.
A similar head-to-head battle unfolded in 2024, when Victor Wembanyama won Rookie of the Year for a San Antonio Spurs team that won 22 games. Chet Holmgren finished runner-up, despite the Oklahoma City Thunder posting a 57-25 record.
Only one of the previous eight Rookie of the Year winners played on a winning team. The average win total over that span is 33.7.
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