Warriors vs Lakers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 23

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 23, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Lakers (27-32) are -5.5 favorites vs. the Warriors (29-29)
  • Total (Over/Under): 238.5 points
  • Thursday, February 23, 2023 at 10:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on TNT & TNT

The Golden State Warriors visit Crypto.com Arena to take on the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EST in Los Angeles.

The Lakers are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-115).

The Warriors vs Lakers Over/Under is 238.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Warriors are 26-31 against the spread, while the Lakers are 27-30 against the spread.


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Warriors vs. Lakers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Golden State Warriors+5.5 -105O 238.5 -110+180
Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 -115U 238.5 -110-225

Lakers vs Warriors Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Lakers will win Thursday‘s game with 62.8% confidence.

Lakers vs Warriors Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Lakers will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 51.4% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Warriors and Lakers, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 40 away games (+16.90 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 64 games (+16.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 17 games (+16.30 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 57 of their last 96 games (+14.06 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the 1H Spread in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have covered the 4Q Spread in 35 of their last 47 games (+21.37 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 58 games (+17.90 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 36 games (+17.74 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have covered the 2Q Spread in 37 of their last 56 games (+15.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 47 games (+10.55 Units / 17% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 26-31 (-8.1 Units / -12.7% ROI).

  • 29-29 against the Moneyline (-26.2 Units / -19.63% ROI)
  • 35-22 against the Over for game total points (+10.8 Units / 16.93% ROI)
  • 22-35 against the Under for game total points (-16.5 Units / -25.86% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Lakers have gone 27-30 (-6.05 Units / -9.31% ROI).

  • 27-32 against the Moneyline (+1.6 Units / 2.13% ROI)
  • 31-28 against the Over for game total points (+0.2 Units / 0.31% ROI)
  • 28-31 against the Under for game total points (-6.1 Units / -9.4% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 80 games (-21.20 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 75 games (-18.34 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 80 games (-14.50 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 38 games at home (-14.35 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only covered the Spread in 36 of their last 83 games (-13.55 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 50 away games (-28.25 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 100 games (-27.25 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 44 of their last 100 games (-23.91 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 100 games (-23.70 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 22 of their last 64 games (-23.10 Units / -33% ROI)

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Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Lakers

The Golden State Warriors are 34-17 (.667) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for seventh-best among NBA teams. The Los Angeles Lakers have averaged 13.7 turnovers per game (1,896 turnovers/138 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for ninth-highest among NBA teams.

The Warriors are 16-3 (.842) when shooting 50% or better from the field this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .751

The Warriors are 56-29 (.651) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .567

The Warriors are 38-20 (.655) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .559

Los Angeles Lakers: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Los Angeles Lakers are 2-8 (.200) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — tied for seventh-worst among NBA teams. The Golden State Warriors has shot 39% from three (916/2,377) this season — third-best among NBA teams.

The Los Angeles Lakers are 6-25 (.194) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — ninth-worst among NBA teams. The Golden State Warriors has shot 37% from three (2,092/5,608) since the start of the 2021-22 season — third-best among NBA teams.

The Lakers are 42-66 (.389) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .432

The Lakers are 30-15 (.667) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2020-21 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .599

Injury Report: Lakers vs. WarriorsThursday‘s Game, Feb. 23

  • LeBron James (Lakers): James is probable for Thursday’s (Feb.23) game against Golden State.
  • Anthony Davis (Lakers): Davis is probable for Thursday’s (Feb.23) game against Golden State.
  • Andrew Wiggins (Warriors): Wiggins is out for Thursday’s (Feb.23) game against Los Angeles.
  • Ryan Rollins (Warriors): The Warriors announced that Rollins has a Jones fracture in his right foot and will undergo surgery.
  • Gary Payton II (Warriors): Warriors GM Bob Myers said Payton II will be re-evaluated in a month.
  • Stephen Curry (Warriors): The Warriors announced that Curry suffered multiple injuries to his left leg and will be re-evaluated after the All-Star Break.
  • Andre Iguodala (Warriors): Iguodala has only played in three games this season and hasn’t played since Jan. 13. It’s unclear when he’ll return to the lineup.

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have made 16.7 three-pointers per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Warriors have averaged 30.9 assists per game (835 assists/27 games) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.4

The Warriors have averaged 14.0 assists per game (771 assists/55 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 11.9

The Warriors have made 15.8 three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.6

Los Angeles Lakers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.2 (209 assists/ 97 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.6

The Lakers have averaged 56.1 points in the paint per game (3,144 points/56 games) this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.1

The Lakers have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.7 (5,153 assists/ 2,956 TOs) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Lakers have made 10.5 three-pointers per game this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 34.9 defensive rebounds per game (7,293 rebounds/209 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.9

The Warriors have averaged 34.1 defensive rebounds per game (1,873 rebounds/55 games) this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.0

The Warriors have averaged 8.1 steals per game (1,686 steals/209 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Warriors have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (209 blocks/55 games) this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Los Angeles Lakers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers have averaged 35.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,984 rebounds/56 games) this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.0

The Lakers have averaged 34.9 defensive rebounds per game (4,810 rebounds/138 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.7

The Lakers have averaged 4.9 blocks per game (678 blocks/138 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Lakers have averaged 5.1 blocks per game (1,064 blocks/210 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.