Warriors vs Lakers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 05, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Warriors (34-30) are -4.5 favorites vs. the Lakers (30-34)
  • Total (Over/Under): 235.5 points
  • Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 3:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on ABC & ABC

The Golden State Warriors visit Crypto.com Arena to take on the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST in Los Angeles.

The Warriors are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-105).

The Warriors vs Lakers Over/Under is 234.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Warriors are 31-32 against the spread, while the Lakers are 30-32 against the spread.


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Warriors vs. Lakers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Golden State Warriors-5.5 -105O 234.5 -105-210
Los Angeles Lakers +5.5 -115U 234.5 -105+170

Lakers vs Warriors Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Warriors will win Sunday‘s game with 63.3% confidence.

Lakers vs Warriors Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Warriors will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 55.8% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Warriors and Lakers, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 41 away games (+15.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 44 of their last 69 games (+15.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 23 games (+12.90 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 70 games (+12.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the 1H Spread in 29 of their last 46 games (+11.30 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have covered the 4Q Spread in 37 of their last 52 games (+19.98 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 63 games (+14.66 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 27 of their last 41 games (+14.17 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 21 of their last 28 games (+13.25 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 52 games (+12.50 Units / 18% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 31-32 (-4.2 Units / -5.97% ROI).

  • 34-30 against the Moneyline (-21.95 Units / -15.19% ROI)
  • 35-28 against the Over for game total points (+4.2 Units / 5.97% ROI)
  • 28-35 against the Under for game total points (-10.5 Units / -14.91% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Lakers have gone 30-32 (-5.25 Units / -7.45% ROI).

  • 30-34 against the Moneyline (+3.55 Units / 4.36% ROI)
  • 32-31 against the Over for game total points (-2.1 Units / -2.98% ROI)
  • 31-32 against the Under for game total points (-4.2 Units / -5.97% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 77 games (-20.00 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 31 of their last 80 games (-17.08 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 28 games (-16.00 Units / -52% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 84 games (-12.50 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 84 games (-11.50 Units / -12% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 46 away games (-27.35 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 100 games (-26.88 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 15 of their last 46 away games (-21.32 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1Q Spread in 42 of their last 100 games (-20.90 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 48 of their last 99 games (-20.70 Units / -14% ROI)

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Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Lakers

The Warriors are 1-17 (.056) when allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .247

The Warriors are 37-20 (.649) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .542

The Warriors are 4-26 (.133) when allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .221

The Warriors are 9-28 (.243) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .273

Los Angeles Lakers: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Lakers are 16-18 (.471) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .530

The Lakers are 27-37 (.422) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

The Lakers are 26-49 (.347) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .424

The Lakers are 19-32 (.373) when allowing fewer than 8 offense rebounds since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .490

Injury Report: Lakers vs. WarriorsSunday‘s Game, Mar. 5

  • LeBron James (Lakers): The Lakers announced that James sustained a right foot tendon injury and will be re-evaluated in about three weeks.
  • Anthony Davis (Lakers): Davis is probable for Sunday’s (Mar. 5) game against Golden State.
  • D’Angelo Russell (Lakers): Russell is out for Sunday’s (Mar. 5) game against Golden State.
  • Andrew Wiggins (Warriors): Wiggins remains without a timetable to return to the Warriors, according to Anthony Slater of The Athletic.
  • Ryan Rollins (Warriors): The Warriors announced that Rollins has a Jones fracture in his right foot and will undergo surgery.
  • Gary Payton II (Warriors): Warriors GM Bob Myers said Payton II will be re-evaluated in a month.
  • Patrick Baldwin Jr. (Warriors): Baldwin Jr. is questionable for Sunday’s (Mar. 5) game against the Lakers.
  • Stephen Curry (Warriors): Curry is probable for Sunday’s (Mar. 5) game against the Lakers.
  • Andre Iguodala (Warriors): Iguodala is probable for Sunday’s (Mar. 5) game against the Lakers.

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have 20.2 free throw attempts per game this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.7

The Warriors have averaged 14.2 assists per game (849 assists/60 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 11.9

The Warriors have averaged 30.5 assists per game (944 assists/31 games) at home this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.4

The Warriors have made 16.6 three-pointers per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

Los Angeles Lakers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (223 assists/ 105 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.6

The Lakers shot 35% from three (796/2,248) in the 2020-21 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Lakers have averaged 16.8 fast break points per game (1,008 points/60 games) this season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

The Lakers are shooting 48% (2,584/5,377) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 34.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,063 rebounds/60 games) this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.1

The Warriors have averaged 35.2 defensive rebounds per game (4,993 rebounds/142 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.7

The Warriors have averaged 8.1 steals per game (1,724 steals/214 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Warriors have 1,143 steals since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th most among NBA teams

Los Angeles Lakers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers have averaged 35.7 defensive rebounds per game (2,144 rebounds/60 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.1

The Lakers have averaged 34.9 defensive rebounds per game (7,460 rebounds/214 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.9

The Lakers have averaged 6.5 steals per game (392 steals/60 games) this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Lakers have blocked 1,089 shots since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th most among NBA teams


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.