Warriors vs Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 7

• The – are favorites vs. the –
• Total (Over/Under): Total points
• Watch the game on ABC

The Golden State Warriors visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30 pm in Oklahoma City, OK.

The – are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Warriors vs Thunder Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Warriors are 28-34 against the spread, while the Thunder are 31-33 against the spread.

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Warriors vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

Thunder vs Warriors Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Saturday‘s game with 69.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Warriors and Thunder.

Thunder vs Warriors Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Warriors will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 70.0% confidence.

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Warriors Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Golden State Warriors have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games (+9.65 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 away games (+8.60 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 away games (+8.45 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 away games (+7.80 Units / 32% ROI)

Thunder Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+9.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 2H Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.61 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.60 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.65 Units / 45% ROI)

Golden State Warriors Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 28-34 (-9.4 Units / -13.78% ROI).

• 32-30 against the Moneyline (-9.6 Units / -6.88% ROI)
• 37-25 against the Over for game total points (+9.5 Units / 13.93% ROI)
• 25-37 against the Under for game total points (-15.7 Units / -23.02% ROI)

Oklahoma City Thunder Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 31-33 (-5.3 Units / -7.53% ROI).

• 49-15 against the Moneyline (-9.7 Units / -2.49% ROI)
• 34-30 against the Over for game total points (+1 Units / 1.42% ROI)
• 30-34 against the Under for game total points (-7.4 Units / -10.51% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Thunder:

• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games (-31.05 Units / -15% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 40 games (-27.40 Units / -31% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games at home (-27.35 Units / -36% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 16 of their last 45 games at home (-17.55 Units / -34% ROI)
• The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (-16.65 Units / -17% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Warriors:

• The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 50 games (-16.95 Units / -23% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1Q Spread in 19 of their last 50 games (-15.85 Units / -27% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 3Q Spread in 1 of their last 15 games (-15.45 Units / -88% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 15 games (-14.85 Units / -81% ROI)
• The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 35 games (-14.20 Units / -36% ROI)

Jump to:

• Keys to Winning for the Golden State Warriors
• Keys to Winning for the Oklahoma City Thunder
• Player Injuries for Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Golden State Warriors Offensive stats
• Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive stats
• Golden State Warriors Defensive stats
• Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive stats

Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Warriors are 6-16 (.273) when their opponent attempts 25 or more free throws this season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .451

The Warriors are 62-13 (.827) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .693

The Warriors are 29-41 (.414) when their opponent attempts 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .449

The Warriors are 67-33 (.670) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .580

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Thunder are 25-7 (.781) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .446

The Thunder are 83-14 (.856) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .559

The Thunder are 15-1 (.938) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .557

The Thunder are 23-3 (.885) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .567

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 21.3 points in the paint per game (1,318 points/62 games) in the first half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.2

The Warriors have made 15.4 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.2

The Warriors have made 16.3 three-pointers per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.2

The Warriors made 14.8 three-pointers per game in the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder shot 41% from three (558/1,378) in the second half in the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder have averaged 12.3 turnovers per game (2,812 turnovers/228 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

The Thunder averaged 11.7 turnovers per game (961 turnovers/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

The Thunder have averaged 11.8 turnovers per game (875 turnovers/74 games) at home since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.4

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 10.3 steals per game (730 steals/71 games) on the road since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4

The Warriors have averaged 33.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,102 rebounds/62 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.0

The Warriors averaged 36.8 defensive rebounds per game (3,018 rebounds/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Warriors have averaged 9.9 steals per game (613 steals/62 games) this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.5

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 9.9 steals per game (1,133 steals/115 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Thunder have averaged 9.5 steals per game (2,169 steals/228 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Thunder have allowed opponents to shoot 44% (5,571/12,780) since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 47%

The Thunder have averaged 10.9 steals per game (810 steals/74 games) at home since the start of the 2024-25 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.2

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