Wizards vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 4

• The Heat are -17.5 favorites vs. the Wizards
• Total (Over/Under): 246.5 points
• Watch the game on FSUN | MNMT | WPLG

The Washington Wizards visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:00 pm in Miami, FL.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -17.5 (-110).

The Wizards vs Heat Over/Under is 246.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Wizards are 32-44 against the spread, while the Heat are 43-33 against the spread.

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Wizards vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

Heat vs Wizards Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Saturday‘s game with 80.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Wizards and Heat.

Heat vs Wizards Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Wizards will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 70.0% confidence.

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Wizards Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Washington Wizards have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games (+11.10 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Washington Wizards have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games (+10.80 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Washington Wizards have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 40 away games (+10.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Washington Wizards have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+10.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Washington Wizards have hit the 2H Moneyline in 15 of their last 40 away games (+9.84 Units / 25% ROI)

Heat Best Bets for Tonight:

• The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+13.95 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 35 games at home (+13.60 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+12.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+9.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.75 Units / 19% ROI)

Washington Wizards Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Wizards have gone 32-44 (-16.35 Units / -19.58% ROI).

• 17-59 against the Moneyline (-13.75 Units / -17.63% ROI)
• 43-33 against the Over for game total points (+6.7 Units / 8.01% ROI)
• 33-43 against the Under for game total points (-14.3 Units / -17.11% ROI)

Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 43-33 (+6.7 Units / 7.91% ROI).

• 40-37 against the Moneyline (-3.2 Units / -2.18% ROI)
• 42-33 against the Over for game total points (+5.7 Units / 6.73% ROI)
• 33-42 against the Under for game total points (-13.2 Units / -15.58% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:

• The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 23 games (-18.90 Units / -56% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 35 games at home (-18.55 Units / -46% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 19 of their last 50 games (-16.50 Units / -29% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only covered the 2Q Spread in 5 of their last 23 games (-15.65 Units / -59% ROI)
• The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 50 games (-14.00 Units / -25% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Wizards:

• The Washington Wizards have only hit the Moneyline in 1 of their last 21 games (-19.35 Units / -89% ROI)
• The Washington Wizards have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 25 games (-17.20 Units / -67% ROI)
• The Washington Wizards have only hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 45 games (-16.85 Units / -33% ROI)
• The Washington Wizards have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 30 games (-15.15 Units / -44% ROI)
• The Washington Wizards have only hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 30 games (-14.10 Units / -43% ROI)

Jump to:

• Keys to Winning for the Washington Wizards
• Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
• Player Injuries for Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat
• Washington Wizards Offensive stats
• Miami Heat Offensive stats
• Washington Wizards Defensive stats
• Miami Heat Defensive stats

Washington Wizards: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Wizards are 21-71 (.228) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Wizards are 10-82 (.109) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .356

The Wizards are 2-25 (.074) when forcing fewer than 5 steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .386

The Wizards are 6-75 (.074) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .305

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Wizards

The Heat are 1-7 (.125) when losing the rebounding margin by 10 or more this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .211

The Heat are 51-46 (.526) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .451

The Heat are 54-12 (.818) when assisting on 30 or more field goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .709

The Heat are 20-6 (.769) when their opponents turns the ball over 20 or more times since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .635

Washington Wizards Offensive Stats & Trends

The Wizards are shooting 34% from three (1,515/4,420) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Wizards are shooting 35% from three (3,081/8,895) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Wizards have a 21% free throw rate (1,537 free throw attempts/7,146 field goal attempts) on the road since the start of the 2024-25 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25%

The Wizards have a 23% free throw rate (1,605 free throw attempts/6,860 field goal attempts) this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 26%

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 19.7 fast break points per game (769 points/39 games) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.3

The Heat have averaged 10.2 fast break points per game (777 points/76 games) in the first half this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Heat have averaged 122.2 points per game (4,767 points/39 games) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 116.3

The Heat have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (2,175 assists/ 1,035 TOs) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Washington Wizards Defensive Stats & Trends

The Wizards have averaged 33.3 defensive rebounds per game (2,533 rebounds/76 games) this season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.8

The Wizards have allowed 16.6 second chance points per game (3,992 points/240 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.3

The Wizards have allowed 8.3 second chance points per game (1,984 points/240 games) in the first half since the start of the 2023-24 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 6.9

The Wizards have blocked 425 shots this season — 6th most among NBA teams

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (920 blocks/240 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (640 blocks/158 games) since the start of the 2024-25 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (470 blocks/121 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (450 blocks/119 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

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