Arizona Overtakes Michigan As Championship Favorite At BetMGM

If college basketball’s holiday season was dominated by Michigan, then the wintery slog of conference play belongs to the Arizona Wildcats.

As February begins and the NCAA Tournament is on the horizon, Arizona basketball odds have supplanted Michigan as the favorite in BetMGM’s college basketball national championship odds market. 

As of Feb. 3, the Wildcats are +375 to win it all.

Arizona has the clear profile of a national champion. Still a member of the club of undefeated college basketball teams in February, the Wildcats play fast but still field an elite defense. That’s especially true inside the arc, where they hold opposing teams to just 43.7% shooting, fourth in college basketball.

Overall, the defense ranks No. 3 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. The offense also carries a top 10 mark in the adjusted efficiency category.

In the modern era, this top-end balance is one of the best predictors of a college basketball national champion ahead of the NCAA Tournament. 

Doing a lot of college basketball handicapping and general national & conference evaluation.

I’m surprised at the discrepancy between how we have talked about SEC basketball this year and the lack of top-end resumes.

Great depth, but potentially zero true title contenders.

— Chase Kiddy (@chaseakiddy) February 3, 2026

Somewhere around here, there will be a contingent of SEC fans that starts booing theatrically at a Big 12 favorite. But Arizona has earned its place at the head of the table, ripping off a 9-0 record in Quad 1 games. It’s the best mark in college hoops. (As of this writing, no SEC team has more than five Quad 1 wins.)

The Wildcats scored early wins against 2025 champion Florida and 2024 champion UConn. They beat both Auburn and Alabama by double digits. Last week, they won at BYU. 

There are still major games ahead in a Big 12 full of heavyweights, including trips to Kansas and Houston. Six of Arizona’s last eight games are against teams currently ranked in the AP Top 20.

It’s unlikely Arizona escapes that gantlet with an undefeated record. College basketball hasn’t had a wire-to-wire undefeated champion in 50 years. 

But Arizona will likely be the No. 1 overall seed in March. Soon, as the Super Bowl ends and sports fans turn their attention to March Madness, the college basketball betting action will heat up on Arizona even more than it already has. This is the program’s best chance to win a national championship since at least 2014. Probably longer than that.

Others are beginning to notice. Last week, BetMGM took a $50,000 bet on Arizona to win it all at +450. Overall, Arizona’s 15.7% handle share leads all teams at BetMGM. 

Consider getting your bet in now. Arizona’s +375 price may only get shorter from here.