Boise State vs Northwestern Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – March Madness, Mar. 16

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 16, 2023, 8:24 AM
  • Northwestern (21-11) is a -1.5 point favorite vs Boise State (24-9)
  • Total (Over/Under): 128.5 points
  • Watch the game on truTV

The #10 seed Boise State Broncos (24-9) visit Golden 1 Center to take on the #7 seed Northwestern Wildcats (21-11) on Mar. 16. Tip off is scheduled for 7:35pm EDT in Sacramento.

Northwestern is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Boise State vs. Northwestern Over/Under is 128.5 total points.

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Boise State vs. Northwestern Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Boise State+1.5 -110O 128.5 -110+105
Northwestern -1.5 -110U 128.5 -110-125

Boise State vs Northwestern Prediction for March Madness:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Boise State will win this March Madness game with 51.0% confidence.

Boise State vs Northwestern Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Northwestern will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Boise State and Northwestern, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Boise State has hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 50 games (+22.80 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Boise State have covered the 1H Spread in 32 of their last 49 games (+14.50 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 27 of their last 39 games (+9.90 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Boise State has hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.40 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Boise State have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 25 away games (+5.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+13.45 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Northwestern have covered the 1H Spread in 18 of their last 24 games (+12.55 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 34 games (+12.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+9.30 Units / 34% ROI)

Boise State Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Boise State has gone 16-15 against the spread this college basketball season (-0.5 Units / 0% ROI).

  • 22-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.05 Units / 10.12% ROI
  • 15-16 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -7.39% ROI
  • 16-15 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -1.42% ROI

Northwestern Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Northwestern has gone 19-13 against the spread this college basketball season (+4.7 Units / 13.35% ROI).

  • 20-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.3 Units / 10.61% ROI
  • 12-20 when betting the Over for -10 Units / -28.41% ROI
  • 20-12 when betting the Under for +6.8 Units / 19.32% ROI

Boise State Offensive Stats & Trends:

Boise State is shooting 41% (50/123) on left wing attempts this season in conference play — best among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 34%

Boise State has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.0 (268 assists/ 257 TOs) this season — tied for lowest among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Boise State has made 4.9 three-pointers per game in possessions with two passes or less this season in conference play — tied for 5th lowest among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 4.9

Boise State has a TS% of 50% in possessions with at least three passes this season in conference play — 5th best among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 48%

Northwestern Offensive Stats & Trends:

Northwestern is shooting 41% (522/1,289) this season — 2nd lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 45%

Northwestern is shooting 41% (522/1,289) this season — lowest among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 45%

Northwestern is shooting 42% (1,346/3,217) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 45%

Northwestern is shooting 42% (1,346/3,217) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 18th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 44%

Boise State Defensive Stats & Trends:

Boise State has allowed an average of 1.07 points per shot (1,396 points/1,302 shots) this season — best among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 1.20

Boise State has allowed an average of 1.07 points per shot (1,396 points/1,302 shots) this season — tied for 5th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.21

Boise State has allowed opponents to shoot 40% (518/1,302) this season — best among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 43%

Boise State has allowed opponents to shoot 28% from three (126/458) this season — best among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 33%

Northwestern Defensive Stats & Trends:

Northwestern has 178 steals this season — 2nd most among Big 10 Teams

Northwestern has averaged 8.1 steals per game (178 steals/22 games) this season — 2nd best among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 6.1

Northwestern has averaged 6.9 steals per game (240 steals/35 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among Big 10 Teams; League Avg: 6.1

Northwestern has 379 steals since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd most among Big 10 Teams


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.