College Basketball Odds to Win the 2026 National Championship

The college basketball season is underway, and conference play is here. That means bettors have already gotten several weeks of games to evaluate, with the meat of the season still to come.

Like any major sport, the futures market is constantly shifting throughout the regular season. Those movements can lead to valuable buy spots for bettors who are paying close attention.

So for ambitious handicappers who like to establish pre-Madness positions, here’s a look at this season’s NCAA basketball odds for the 2026 national championship, as well as a few notes and numbers to consider before betting.

Odds to Win NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament 2026

College Basketball National Championship Prediction, 2026

Based on the current futures market, the Arizona Wildcats have an implied 21.1% chance to win the NCAA men’s basketball championship next year.

March Madness Odds: Undefeated Arizona Tops Futures Market

You can’t lock down the No. 1 overall seed in January, but Arizona is doing its best.

In Year 2 of its Big 12 membership, the Arizona Wildcats are utilizing the superior depth and competition of its new conference to make a strong case ahead of the NCAA Tournament. 

As of Feb. 11, the Wildcats are 9-1 in Quad 1 games and rank as a top-10 team in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency. The latter is a key historical signal for national championship contention. 

In the final week of January, the college basketball futures market finally made its long-awaited adjustment. Arizona overtook Michigan as the national title favorite at BetMGM. The Wolverines had a blistering hot run through late November and early December, but they may have peaked months too early.

For now, Michigan remains the most popular ticket at BetMGM with 11% of tickets, as of Feb. 9. But with Arizona now crowned as the favorite, and the month of February arriving, late-arriving college basketball handicappers will quickly blow up Arizona’s 6.8% market share. 

Arizona’s price point may only go down from here.

College Basketball Championship Odds: Most Popular Tickets at BetMGM

College basketball remains a bastion for top brands. Many predictable programs are early betting targets throughout the preseason period and remain popular online sports betting targets throughout the season.

Duke has the likely John Wooden Award winner with Cameron Boozer, and Durham is located in a legal betting state that’s crazy about basketball. Despite some reasonable questions about championship team depth, the Blue Devils have a high market representation – nearly 9% of all championship tickets, which is the No. 2 most popular ticket at BetMGM.

Purdue has been a popular betting option in recent years and remains so with Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn anchoring a classic inside-out lineup. At BetMGM, the Boilermakers’ 6.9% ticket share is more than any team other than Michigan.

Houston (6.7%) and UConn (6.4%) were the other popular options that were commonly targeted before the season started. Both will have a good shot to make a regional final, at minimum.

There’s a significant drop in popularity after UConn, but the next most popular teams remain strong basketball brands: Michigan State (3.9%), Kansas (3.8%), and Illinois (3.7%).