- UConn is the No. 1 overall seed and is a +200 favorite to win the 2024 national championship.
- North Carolina (+1100) is the No. 1 seed in the West, but Arizona (+800) has better odds.
- NC State became BetMGM's top liability after No. 3 Kentucky was eliminated by Oakland.
March Madness is officially here. Fortunately, the college basketball odds table never went anywhere.
BetMGM opened a fresh market for the 2024 college basketball national championship just minutes after UConn cut down the nets in April 2023.
With March Madness 2024 underway and the bracket now live, here’s a look at the NCAAB odds for the 2024 national championship, as of March 27, as well as a few notes and numbers to consider before betting.
Odds To Win NCAA Tournament 2024
Team | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
---|---|---|
UConn | +200 | +1200 |
Houston | +550 | +2200 |
Purdue | +600 | +1800 |
Arizona | +800 | +1600 |
North Carolina | +1100 | +2500 |
Tennessee | +1300 | +3300 |
Marquette | +1800 | +2000 |
Iowa State | +2000 | +5000 |
Creighton | +2500 | +2500 |
Duke | +2500 | +1200 |
Gonzaga | +2500 | +2200 |
Illinois | +3500 | +6600 |
Alabama | +4000 | +1400 |
San Diego State | +6600 | +20000 |
Clemson | +10000 | +20000 |
NC State | +10000 | +15000 |
March Madness Odds 2024: Biggest Winners After Early Results
After three years of intense upsets, magical runs from No. 15 seeds, and total chaos in March, the 2024 NCAA Tournament finished its first week with a shockingly un-shocking Sweet 16.
Yes, the first round included upsets like Oakland over Kentucky, James Madison over Wisconsin, and Duquesne over BYU. But in the round of 32, favorites won consistently and often convincingly. Clemson was the only underdog to win outright for the entire weekend.
Something happened in this NCAA Tournament that’s been a little shocking: Chalk.
Over the last three years, we have gotten used to crazy runs from 15 seeds and total chaos by the second week. But *that* level of nonsense isn’t normal.
This is the first time in five years that…
— Chase Kiddy (@chaseakiddy) March 25, 2024
As a result, the odds table hasn’t shifted much from Selection Sunday. UConn is still the clear favorite to beat, moving down to +200 from +350 after predictable blowout wins over Stetson and Northwestern. Houston has seen a similarly small adjustment, moving from +600 to +550. Purdue is down from +650 to +600.
Marquette was one of the biggest movers of the weekend, adjusted from +2500 to +1800 after a huge game from Tyler Kolek seemed to suggest that the star guard is healthy and effective. Marquette is also the beneficiary of upsets throughout the bottom portion of the South region. The Golden Eagles are the only team that will play a double-digit opponent in the Sweet 16.
That opponent is NC State, with the national championship odds priced at +10000. That’s the longest price of any team remaining on the board, despite the fact that NC State has become the No. 1 liability remaining in the tournament for the BetMGM online sportsbook.
In more ways than one, this table says that BetMGM is not concerned about NC State’s potential to win more games in the second week of the tournament.
Sweet 16: March Madness Value Betting Targets
For bettors looking to establish new positions with rich returns, there are a few potential options to consider.
In the mid-table range, Duke could be an interesting ticket to consider at +2500. The Blue Devils have been up and down in 2024 and play a short rotation, but their elite shooting and inside-out presence was finally on display in a second-round game against James Madison.
A Sweet 16 game against Houston will prove difficult, but if Jared McCain and Tyrese Proctor can remain hot on the outside, Duke could solve Houston’s lockdown defense.
Creighton is another team available at +2500, and the Bluejays have two potential second-week opponents – Rick Barnes’ Tennessee and Matt Painter’s Purdue – that have historically struggled to make deep runs in the NCAA Tournament.
Farther down the table is Alabama at +4000, which might be the best value buy on the board right now. I have been low on Alabama’s prospects for this tournament, but the West region of the bracket may be the section most likely to produce a Final Four team that is not a No. 1 seed.
Alabama’s 3-point-centered approach makes it arguably the most high-variance team remaining in the tournament. If the Crimson Tide hit threes, they can shoot their way past literally any team in the NCAA Tournament.
That kind of variance may be worth a dart throw at +4000 – especially with more vulnerable teams like UNC and Arizona at the top of the region.
Favorite bet at @BetMGM right now: Marquette to make the Elite Eight +175.
I know Tyler Kolek is not 100%. But how can you argue with this path at that price?!#MarchMadness #MarchMadness2024 #NCAATournament pic.twitter.com/QqBri2R30I
— Chase Kiddy (@chaseakiddy) March 22, 2024
College Basketball National Championship Odds
Since the NCAA Tournament expanded in the mid-1980s, 87% of men’s champions have played as a No. 1 seed, a No. 2 seed, or a No. 3 seed.
That includes a long stretch from 2015 through 2022 where six of the seven champions were No. 1 seeds.
The message here is clear. Don’t get too crazy with the mid-table odds. The last game of the season is generally won by the big boys.
The 2023 Final Four is actually a perfect example of this. Against all odds, the national semifinals featured a nontraditional mid-major (Florida Atlantic), a traditionally powerful mid-major (San Diego State), and a low-seeded team from a power conference (Miami). It also featured UConn, a blue blood with multiple NBA prospects. Guess who won?
If you want to make a smart bet that’s not a hedge setup, that means staying near the top of the table and betting on a team that’s expected to be seeded high.
Now that we know what the bracket will look like, we know who the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are:
- Purdue
- UConn
- Houston
- Tennessee
- Marquette
- North Carolina
- Arizona
- Iowa State
Of those teams, Marquette and Iowa State are +1800 or longer and don’t have a big history of deep tournament runs.
That leaves Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee, UNC, and Arizona as the top teams to consider for the 2024 national championship – well, if you’re going by the historical numbers, anyway.
College Basketball National Championship Odds: Good, Bad, and Ugly From Kentucky’s Loss to Oakland
No. 3 Kentucky’s loss to No. 14 Oakland was the big shock of the NCAA Tournament, at least so far. The Wildcats were bounced by record-breaking shooting from senior guard Jack Gohlke, who connected on an eye-popping ten 3-pointers to send Kentucky packing. His 32 points led all scorers in the game.
At BetMGM, Kentucky was the third-most popular championship bet behind only UConn and North Carolina, accounting for 8.5% of all tickets and 9.6% of all handle. Because of Kentucky’s slightly longer odds, the Wildcats remained the No. 1 financial liability for BetMGM in the championship market at the start of Thursday, as they had been for most of the season.
“Kentucky’s early exit clears a big loser off the books for BetMGM,” said BetMGM senior trader Michael Ranftle. “North Carolina and NC State are our biggest remaining liabilities.”
So the sportsbook was a big winner after the Oakland game, and many Kentucky bettors are ripping up tickets this morning. But arguably the biggest loser of all is Big Blue coach John Calipari himself, who is stringing together an unfortunate set of early exits in March.
Kentucky is 1-3 in the NCAA Tournament since 2021 despite playing as a No. 2 seed, a No. 3 seed, and a No. 6 seed. It’s been five years since Kentucky made the second weekend of the tournament.
For Calipari, that 2012 national championship has likely never felt farther away.
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