Duke vs Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Mar. 11

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Virginia head coach Tony Bennett reacts to a call during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Wake Forest in Winston-Salem, N.C., Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023.
(AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 11, 2023, 10:53 AM
  • Duke (25-8) is a Duke -2.5 point favorite vs Virginia (25-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 123.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The #21 Duke Blue Devils (25-8) visit Greensboro Coliseum to take on the #13 Virginia Cavaliers (25-6) on Mar. 11. Tip off is scheduled for 8:30pm EST in Greensboro.

Duke is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Duke vs. Virginia Over/Under is 123.5 total points.

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Duke vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Duke-2.5 -110O 123.5 -110-145
Virginia +2.5 -110U 123.5 -110+120

Duke vs Virginia Prediction for Today’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Duke will win this game with 53.5% confidence.

Duke vs Virginia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Duke will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Duke and Virginia, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 36 of their last 50 games (+14.80 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Duke have covered the 1H Spread in 17 of their last 25 away games (+8.25 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Duke have covered the Spread in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 50 games (+16.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+8.30 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+6.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.55 Units / 35% ROI)

Duke Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Duke has gone 14-19 against the spread this college basketball season (-6.9 Units / -19.01% ROI).

  • 20-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.3 Units / 7.68% ROI
  • 14-19 when betting the Over for -6.9 Units / -19.01% ROI
  • 19-14 when betting the Under for +3.6 Units / 9.92% ROI

Virginia Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Virginia has gone 13-17 against the spread this college basketball season (-5.7 Units / 0% ROI).

  • 21-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.55 Units / 7.87% ROI
  • 16-15 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -1.47% ROI
  • 15-16 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -7.62% ROI

Duke Offensive Stats & Trends:

Duke has 661 assists at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — most among ACC Teams

Duke is shooting 42% (275/649) in the second half this season — 2nd lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 45%

Duke has averaged 13.5 offensive rebounds per game (298 rebounds/22 games) this season — tied for 2nd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 10.6

Duke has 457 offensive rebounds at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — most among ACC Teams

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 1.1

Duke Defensive Stats & Trends:

Duke has averaged 27.2 defensive rebounds per game (1,660 rebounds/61 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 17th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.4

Duke has averaged 5.3 steals per game (117 steals/22 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.1

Duke has forced 11.1 turnovers per game (679 turnovers/61 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 27th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 12.7

Duke has allowed opponents to shoot 31% from three (131/425) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 35%

Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has averaged 23.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,287 rebounds/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Virginia has averaged 23.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,287 rebounds/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Virginia has averaged 6.7 steals per game (134 steals/20 games) this season — 5th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2

Virginia has averaged 6.7 steals per game (134 steals/20 games) this season — 5th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.