- Duke is predicted to be a -9.5-point favorite against Arizona.
- Duke has won 29 of its last 30 games, including each of its last 13.
- One NCAA betting system predicts the Blue Devils will cover the spread.
Looking for a third straight ATS success to begin the tournament, Duke faces Arizona in the Sweet 16.
The Blue Devils cruised as double-digit favorites against Baylor, covering the spread in an 89-66 win. With a win against the Wildcats on Thursday, Duke would capture a 14th straight win.
Arizona advanced to the Sweet 16 thanks to an 87-83 win over Oregon in the round of 32. Now, they’ll look for a 19th win in their last 21 against non-conference opponents as heavy dogs.
Bet on Duke vs. Arizona and other March Madness matchups with up-to-date college basketball odds.
Duke vs. Arizona Odds, March Madness
- Duke Moneyline: -550
- Arizona Moneyline: +400
- Game Spread: Duke -9.5 (-110), Arizona +9.5 (-110)
- Game Over/Under: 153.5 Points (-115/-105)
Duke vs. Arizona Prediction
Based on one historically profitable NCAAB betting system, the Duke vs. Arizona prediction for Thursday’s game is the Duke Spread (-9.5, -110).
Two statistical factors are driving this prediction on Duke: the Blue Devils’ conversion rate from the free-throw line and Arizona’s relatively strong three-point defense.
Dating back to the 2006 NCAA Tournament, history tells bettors to back favorites or short underdogs in this situation.
Over that timeframe, teams between -20 and +2 are 53-14-1 ATS, assuming two factors:
- The team’s free throw percentage falls between 77.2% and 85%
- The underdog’s defensive three-point percentage falls between 28.5% and 35.7%
Betting these teams has proven especially fruitful in the Sweet 16 onward. Over that same timeframe, these teams are 14-2 ATS from the regional semifinal onward.
Just in the Sweet 16, these teams are 6-1 ATS.
Irrespective of tournament round, favorites fitting this designation cover at a higher rate when listed as a big number.
Shrink the sample down to games where the favorite closed between -20 and -7: 10-2-1 ATS, including 9-0 ATS in the last nine fits.
As a result, bettors should consider laying the points with the Blue Devils on Thursday.
Duke vs. Arizona: NCAAB Public Betting
| Team | Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 39% | 31% | 64% | 19% |
| Duke | 61% | 69% | 36% | 81% |
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