Duke vs. Arizona: Prediction, Pick, Odds Preview

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Old Dominion forward Stephaun Walker (0) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Arizona, Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024, in Tucson, Ariz.
(AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
Chase Kiddy @chaseakiddy Nov 22, 2024, 9:39 AM
  • Duke vs. Arizona tips off at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
  • Arizona is one of the fastest adjusted tempo teams in Division I.

Dukeโ€™s challenging nonconference schedule continues Friday evening with a road trip to Tucson for a top 20 game against the Arizona Wildcats.ย 

Duke basketball odds may have taken a small ding after last weekโ€™s loss to Kentucky, but I believe there are still good entry points to betting this game in both the spread and total market.

Duke vs. Arizona Odds

  • Point Spread: Arizona -1.5
  • Moneyline: Arizona -130ย  |ย  Duke +105
  • Total: 160.5

Duke vs. Arizona Preview

Yes, Duke lost to Kentucky and is no longer among the ranks of the undefeated. But even with that ink now dry, we can still be pretty confident that Duke is a good team. Cooper Flagg โ€“ still 17 years old by the way โ€“ will continue to get better.

Iโ€™m a little less sold on Arizona. The Wildcats lost a lot in the portal over the offseason, including Oumar Ballo, who was a two-time First Team Pac-12 selection and spent much of last season in the Wooden Award odds table.ย 

Arizona was a preseason AP Top 25 team, as it is most years, but opening wins against Canisius and ODU donโ€™t tell me much. The road loss to Wisconsin isnโ€™t season-breaking, but itโ€™s enough to raise questions about whether or not Arizona is in the same class of teams as Duke.

So on the side, Iโ€™m expecting Duke to win and cover here. My feeling is that Arizonaโ€™s frontcourt has some raw size, with 7-footers Henri Veesaar and Motiejus Krivas, but it wonโ€™t quite stack up to Dukeโ€™s in terms of technical skill. Arizonaโ€™s early-season dominance on the offensive boards will be challenged.

The better angle on this game is probably the total. Per KenPom, Tommy Lloydโ€™s Wildcats are playing with the sixth-fastest adjusted tempo in menโ€™s college basketball, and theyโ€™re holding the ball fewer than 15 seconds per adjusted possession. That pace is why Arizona has scored 93, 102, and 88 points in its three early games so far.ย 

Duke plays at a slower tempo, but is incredibly efficient with its offensive possessions โ€“ perhaps because of the strong inside-out game it can challenge opposing defenses with.

I was on the under in my Kentucky vs. Duke preview, but Iโ€™ll take the other side in this game.ย 

Duke vs. Arizona Prediction

I am predicting an over and a Duke win and cover. I think Friday nightโ€™s Duke vs. Arizona game provides an excellent opportunity to parlay both the side and total together in a quality SGP.ย 

Duke vs. Arizona Pick: Over 160.5; Lean: Duke +1.5

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About the Author

Chase Kiddy

Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.