First Four Predictions & Best Bets for the 2026 NCAA Tournament

Every year since 2011, the First Four has provided a sizzling appetizer of tournament action. Basketball fiends can get a quick fix on Tuesday and Wednesday before the main course arrives on Thursday.

Hunting for actual value in the First Four’s college basketball odds market can be a bit trickier. Since these teams are often near-equals, betting the games often boils down to correctly forecasting a winner.

Indeed, in this year’s First Four, three of the four games have point spreads smaller than or equal to 3.5. 

First Four Odds

UMBC vs. Howard Prediction

I rarely pay much attention to the No. 16 play-in games, but this one caught my eye because of some America East work I had already done last week.

UMBC enters the NCAA Tournament with a 12-game winning streak that dates back to January. They’re playing a Howard team that won the MEAC despite a prolific turnover rate and an inefficient offense. 

Metrics like KenPom rate Howard highly because the Bison scored some (narrow!) wins against nonconference opponents in December. A 67-66 road win at UNC Wilmington is doing a lot of work in propping up Howard’s KenPom rating. But the MEAC is so bad that Howard hasn’t beaten an opponent with a KenPom rating above 325 in nearly three months. Yikes.

I’m spending a little time explaining the metrics because they outline why this game is priced as a virtual pick ‘em. In reality, I think UMBC is the clearly better team, and early action did pop this point spread out to -2.5 before there was some buyback on Howard. 

At its current -118 price point, I think UMBC is the best bet available in this week’s First Four.

Prediction: UMBC -118

Texas vs. NC State Prediction

This game boils down to a stoppable force vs. a movable object, as both Texas and NC State have closed the pre-tournament period on bad losing skids. 

NC State is 2-7 since Feb. 9 with a bad loss to Notre Dame. Texas is 1-5 since Feb. 21, including a one-and-done in the SEC Tournament last week.

The sportsbook has priced this as a true -110 coin flip, which, in my estimation, is the correct price. 

With no real inclination toward a side, I would lean toward an under. I’m trying to imagine the psychological headspace of two reeling teams entering the NCAA Tournament. I think the defensive effort will probably be there, even if the shots aren’t falling, so I’d reach for an under here if I’m thinking about anything.

Recommendation: Pass; Lean Under 157.5

Lehigh vs. Prairie View A&M Prediction

Lehigh is something of an overtime team this year, having played in seven different OT games (and two 2OT games) between Nov. 29 and Feb. 4. During that 10 week span, it was averaging an overtime every other game against its Div. I opponents.

Why do I bring this up? Well, I don’t see much of an angle on a side or total, other than a small lean toward Prairie View +3.5. But at BetMGM, you can bet on whether or not a game will go to overtime. With Lehigh’s proclivity for playing extra frames this year, maybe it’s worth a +750 dart throw.

Prediction: Games Goes to Overtime +750; Lean Prairie View A&M +3.5

SMU vs. Miami (OH) Prediction

Surely  Wednesday’s finale will be the most casually interesting of the First Four games, as millions of fans will want to check in to see if mid-major darling Miami can advance to a Round of 64 game on Friday. 

The betting odds suggest this will be the least competitive of the four games. And to be sure, there’s a decent chance that turns out to be true. The metrics have always hinted that Miami was an extremely lucky team to finish the regular season at 31-0, which is why the RedHawks weren’t even favored to win the MAC Tournament last week.

One of the things I started noticing with Miami in the final weeks of the season is that their undefeated status was making them play tight. Spread underdogs became very appealing plays against Miami because they were so inclined to play competitive games. A bunch of them finished with one-score margins.

Psychologically, I wonder how the team will play now that they’re finally free of that burden. College players routinely talk about how helpful it is to take a loss and break the pressure of a long winning streak ahead of the NCAA Tournament. I wonder if Wednesday’s game against SMU will reveal an inspired Miami team that plays one of its best games of the year.

On the SMU side, this is a team that simply does not play well away from Dallas. It’s 3-8 away from Moody Coliseum since Christmas. 

This is the team that’s being asked to lay 6.5 points in a win-or-go-home tournament game in Dayton against Miami. And given everything we know about both the geography of Ohio and the underdog sympathies of most American crowds, this game could become as close to a true road game as you’re likely to see in this tournament. I like Miami.

Prediction: Miami +6.5; Miami +225

NCAA Tournament First Four: Best Bets for 2026

• UMBC -118
• Miami +6.5