Fresno State vs Air Force Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Feb. 21

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 21, 2023, 12:25 PM
  • Air Force (14-14) is a -2.5 point favorite vs Fresno State (9-17)
  • Total (Over/Under): 124.5 points
  • Watch the game on MW Network

The Fresno State Bulldogs (9-17) visit Clune Arena to take on the Air Force Falcons (14-14) on Feb. 21. Tip off is scheduled for 9:00pm EST in Colorado Springs.

Air Force is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Fresno State vs. Air Force Over/Under is 124.5 total points.

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Fresno State vs. Air Force Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Fresno State+2.5 -115O 124.5 -110+110
Air Force -2.5 -105U 124.5 -110-135

Fresno State vs Air Force Prediction for Today’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Air Force will win this game with 54.8% confidence.

Fresno State vs Air Force Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Air Force will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Fresno State and Air Force, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Fresno State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Fresno State have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 24 away games (+4.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Fresno State has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Air Force has hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games (+7.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Air Force have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Air Force has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.40 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Air Force has hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Air Force has hit the 1H Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games (+2.25 Units / 75% ROI)

Fresno State Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Fresno State has gone 9-16 against the spread this college basketball season (-8.55 Units / -31.15% ROI).

  • 8-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.4 Units / -22.6% ROI
  • 10-15 when betting the Over for -6.5 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • 15-10 when betting the Under for +4 Units / 14.55% ROI

Air Force Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Air Force has gone 17-11 against the spread this college basketball season (+4.9 Units / 15.94% ROI).

  • 14-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 2.74% ROI
  • 16-12 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 9.09% ROI
  • 12-16 when betting the Under for -5.6 Units / -18.18% ROI

Fresno State Offensive Stats & Trends:

Fresno State is shooting 28% from three (127/446) this season — lowest among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 35%

Fresno State is shooting 28% from three (98/350) in half court possessions this season in conference play — lowest among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 35%

Fresno State has averaged 0.88 points per shot (302 points/344 shots) in possessions with two to five passes this season in conference play — lowest among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 1.12

Fresno State is shooting 36% (123/344) in possessions with two to five passes this season in conference play — lowest among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 44%

Air Force Offensive Stats & Trends:

Air Force has averaged 21.6 points per game (303 points/14 games) on possessions with a ball reversal this season in conference play — best among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 12.4

Air Force has averaged 31.3 points per game (438 points/14 games) in possessions with at least three passes this season in conference play — best among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 18.9

Air Force has averaged 6.3 turnovers per game (94 turnovers/15 games) in possessions with two passes or less this season in conference play — best among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 9.2

Air Force has averaged 5.1 turnovers per game (72 turnovers/14 games) on possessions with a ball reversal this season in conference play — highest among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 2.0

Fresno State Defensive Stats & Trends:

Fresno State has allowed 61.2 points per game (3,490 points/57 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 7th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 69.8

Fresno State has allowed an average of 1.23 points per shot (1,351 points/1,099 shots) this season — 3rd highest among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 1.20

Fresno State has allowed 7.6 made three-pointers per game this season — tied for 4th highest among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 7.3

Fresno State has averaged 22.8 defensive rebounds per game (478 rebounds/21 games) this season — lowest among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 25.7

Air Force Defensive Stats & Trends:

Air Force has averaged 21.7 defensive rebounds per game (1,127 rebounds/52 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 25.5

Air Force has allowed an average of 1.28 points per shot (3,425 points/2,681 shots) since the start of the 2021-22 season — highest among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 1.20

Air Force has allowed opponents to shoot 45% (1,203/2,681) since the start of the 2021-22 season — highest among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 43%

Air Force has allowed opponents to shoot 29% from three (114/398) this season — 2nd best among Mountain West Teams; League Avg: 33%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.