As the football season winds down, many bettors begin to study college basketball, moving their action and handicapping prowess to the winter sport with the highest amount of raw game inventory.
For anyone sorting through individual college basketball spreads, I’ve done a little basic homework on cover rates for favorites.Â
Hopefully, this helps you hone in on a successful online sports betting strategy in college basketball.
How Often Do College Basketball Favorites Cover the Spread?
Since 2018, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned PASPA, college basketball favorites have covered the spread 50.2% of the time.
Favorites are 13,053-12,963-405 ATS since the start of the 2018-19 NCAA men’s basketball season.
Results from the full 2024-25 season are roughly in line with the trend. Last year, favorites covered the spread 49.9% of the time. Their full ATS record was 1,996-2,005-59.
All of these records are according to Bet Labs’ historical data.
Since the 2004-05 season, favorites are 37,103-36,937-1,461 ATS, which is 50.1%. The 2004-05 season is the earliest season Bet Labs has data.Â
There has been no tracked season since 2004-05 where blind-betting favorites was a winning strategy. With the spread split so close to 50%, college basketball spreads appear to be a very efficient market across tens of thousands of games.Â
Hopefully, this leaves you with an obvious but data-proven conclusion: Bettors must select college basketball favorites with skilled discretion.
Betting online is a unique way to take your college basketball experience to the next level.
From early-season tournaments through the national championship, you can view updated spreads, over/under totals, parlays, and more. Whether you’re a first-time bettor, casual fan, or longtime diehard, there are NCAAB odds for everyone.
If you don’t have a sportsbook account, sign up for the BetMGM welcome bonus, one of many sportsbook offers at BetMGM.
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